I'm not too committed politically one way or the other, though like a lot of folks in the crypto world I lean towards the (L) party. Regardless, I literally think they can win the Presidential election in 2020. Here is why:
What they are already doing right:
Libertarians are running very respectable, mainstream candidates:
The Libertarian party is running two former centrist Republicans that were highly popular in Blue States.
- President: Gary Johnson (former 2-term Governor of New Mexico)
- Vice-President: Bill Weld (former 2-term Governor of Massachusetts)
Anyone remember "Downtown" Harry Browne? Didn't think so. Mainstream candidates matter.
Libertarians are the only "Mainstream" 3rd Party Choice
If a "traditional" Dem or Rep absolutely cannot stand their candidate, by a margin of 5 to 1 or more they are polling for the Libertarian candidate (versus Green, write-in, or what have you). The L-party are currently seen as the only viable candidate if you do not want to totally waste your vote. It is a double-edged sword; Libertarians want the US political universe to expand beyond two mainstream parties, but you don't necessarily want 4. Three is a good "mama bear" compromise...
For 2016, they are polling relatively well in Western States
The L party is polling, relatively speaking, quite well in several Western States. Nate Silver's 538 polling aggregate indicates the following:
- Utah: 13.5% (versus 45.7% R and 38.8% D). It's no secret that the Mormons absolutely hate Donald Trump and because of that The L-party is doing quite well in Utah.
- Wyoming: 12.0% (versus 55.2% R and 30.8% D)
- They are also over 10% in NE, SD, ND and MT (14%!).
2016, The Strategy
Focus like a laser on winning one or a few of these Western States (above):
Wyoming has a population of 584,000 people. In the last election, 249,000 votes were cast:
The current polls indicate 12% of likely voters are already voting for you. That leaves 219,000 likely voters you want to reach out too (especially the 168,000 that voted for Romney in 2012). This is a game of cost and maximum effect. It is considered high-value to spend $20 to reach a voter. If you wanted to spend $20 on every voting man and woman in the United States it would cost you over $4.6 Billion dollars. But doing exactly this in Wyoming only costs you $5M. This is highly targeted, well spent use of precious capital.
It is hugely different if the electoral college goes 316 - 222 - 0 (D-R-L) or if it goes 316 - 218 - 3. That last little "3" means you won a state. If you have $50M in the bank, would you spend $1 reaching out to 50M people who won't vote for you or $200 to a small set of people who very likely could be convinced to?
Winning even one state means you can spend the next 4 years talking about how you know how to win states. Every red/blue map of the 2016 election will have a big yellow box right in the middle showing the world the state you pulled off. If you could have 3 or 4, that would be beyond spectacular. Pour whatever money you have into Wyoming (or if you have enough, UT, MT, and a few others) AND DON'T GO ANYWHERE ELSE. From here until November 8th, stay right there: TV, internet, email lists, phone banking calls, mailers, a targeted, specific ground game, University outreach (in Wyoming, there's only one), and of course, the never-ending RV Bus Tour. Handshakes, babies and bar-b-ques, 3 months. That's the formula. Stay in this one (or at most 4 or 5 States) and make absolutely sure you win at least one of them.
Pulling ahead of Trump in a state Hillary can afford to lose is nothing but huge free press and great news. Hillary won't try to compete with you there and Trump will be caught off guard; any effort of his to do damage control there will be too late (plus he will be fighting Hillary's onslaught in battleground states anyhow). This also makes marginalized, "safe Red" States feel important again. And let's be realistic: they hate Trump, so that's what you are capitalizing on.
The math:
In WY, the L-party is polling at 12% or ~30k votes out of 250k, which is far higher than the 5k votes the L's received in 2012. Trump is polling at 55% (137k votes). Hillary is polling at 31% (77k votes). Hillary is polling higher than Obama actually received (69k votes), so those are likely folks that simply don't like Trump compared to Romney so they can hold their nose and vote for Hillary. That's low hanging fruit so +7k for Johnson there. Now he needs to convince 50% of Trump's current support that they should instead believe in him, or ~86.5k votes. If he pulled this off he would win 36.1% to 35.4% (with Hillary at 28%), and win the State's 3 electoral votes. The other two candidates need to fight a national battle, but Gary Johnson needs to go and talk to to 93,000 people total. That's it. That's 30k per month, starting right now, or $50 per person on a $5M budget.
Why 2020 is the time? Because 2016 is a Total ShitShow
Convincing folks who are accustomed to the argument of Left=Good, Right=Bad (or vice-versa) is not an easy task, because the argument needs to be changed so drastically it will sound foreign and alien if the circumstances do not warrant them to be listening for it. The 2016 election will come down to Hillary or Trump. Hillary, by her own accord, admits she will be representing an Obama third term. If Trump was elected, it is my opinion we'd be lucky to avoid a thermonuclear war (so even a global financial collapse, which is likely, pales in comparison when setting such a low "upside" bar). The gamblers are predicting Hillary by about 4 to 1, so focusing on her victory is more pertinent at this time, or until circumstances change substantially.
Trump has already fractured the Republican party, regardless of winning or not, probably irrecoverably. Half of the Republicans are ready to hear another story. Hillary is already hugely unpopular. There is very little chance she would be more popular by 2020, and a very good chance the nation will be absolutely sick of the D crowd that a Hillary-second-term / Obama-4th-term will be palatable. Certainly the Republicans will be coming out of the woodwork in 2020 to try to stop Hillary. Dems are not going to vote for Reps and vice-versa, but will they do vote for a third party candidates. After the 2016 election and 1st term of either President, they will be ready to hear what a third party is offering.
Onward to 2020: The Strategy
- Run a 50-State, 4 year campaign:
The race for the Libertarian White House begins on November 9th, 2016 and goes for the next four years straight. It is no secret that whoever wins in 2016, it is going to be a massive Shit Show for which, in general, the American is already sick of hearing about and being a part of. This is the ideal time and chance to rise above manure in almost Zen-like way, preaching at every turn how the Libertarian party would've handled this issue and that, and what the outcome would've been because if their policies and beliefs. It would be very very enlightening to always be hearing this point of view as the shitshow marches horribly on beneath them. - Change the argument from Left versus Right to Centralized vs. Decentralized:
wrote a great, and widely read, piece on this subject that is worth revisiting, or checking out if you haven't yet. The central argument is capitalism and socialism both "work" wonderfully in theory, but break down into the same thing in practice: a central oligarchical corpocracy where the wealth concentrates among the few that have powerful connections and write the rules to continue to favor themselves. Decentralization (of which growing crypto is a part) powerfully changes this dynamic from the ground up (grassroots). I would add that I think the "roots" to the "grass" is a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial mechanism that eliminates the middleman (banks) and allows individuals to only deal with each other. So basically bitcoin, and therefore all blockchain technology implementations. *Neither existing major party, and their huge donors, are very rosy about these new "fintech" concepts. This personal freedom should become the the flag-bearing mantra of the Libertarian party.
- Solicit big donors of your own:
It's the worst kept secret in America that the Koch Brothers, who lean Libertarian (but mostly support R's) absolutely hate Trump. They will spend 100's of Millions of dollars defending down-ticket republicans while turning their back on the party leader and presidential candidate. This is the opportune time to begin to court like0minded deep-pocket donors fracturing from the Manure Party. - Extend this message at the margins to include the mainstream more and more:
No matter what state your reaching for, you are still trying to pull, on average, about 80-85% of the Independents to your side, 50% of the Republicans, and whatever Democrats you can muster. This equals about 50% of the total vote. - **Beliefs versus Policy:
Focus on freedom and Libertarian beliefs when discussing abstract policy. Fall back on your successful four combined terms as Governors when discussing policy. Freedom fries are great, but the role of government is to govern so let's hear specifically on how you intend to do just that. This is huge for credibility. - Build a national movement (like Bernie did) and support candidates in other races
Solicit and entice other like0minded third parties ino the Libertarian tent (Et tu Pirate Party?)
may be running under their own banners in local races but they need a parade leader on the national level t0o
I'll wait to see if anyone reads this before writing any more, but I have a lot more thoughts on the 2016 election and beyond (gotta get back to work anyhow). Ciao!