Gavin Newsom won in 2018 with 62%.
Gavin Newsom despite a multi million dollar campaign effort managed to win a recall by a higher margin over his original win.
But how did this happen with obvious issues from COVID, some minor personal scandals and mixed approval ratings?
Answer is one name.
Larry Elder
Magicians have a method for card tricks called “card forcing” where the goal is to get people to pick the card they want them to pick while having them think it was their choice.
Larry Elder was a pretty simple example of “candidate forcing”.
Anti minimum wage
For privatizing social security
For open carry gun laws
Views which regardless of personal opinion, are factually unelectable in California. Not to mention Larry Elder had no experience at all.
California did have a strong candidate though with San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer who also ran as a Republican, but very different kind of one.
- Believes in climate change and as mayor made a plan for San Diego to be completely renewable by 2030.
- Believed in expanding housing projects in San Diego for the homeless and actually fought democrat council members to open more homeless shelters.
- Has experience in disease control being praised for handling San Diego’s Hepatitis outbreak.
Extremely qualified, moderate on positions and in a Newsom v Faulconer race, he’d have a decent chance of winning in even California.
Newsom and the left saw this and made the plan to force Larry Elder as the face of the recall.
The LA Times said Elder was the face of white supremacy.
Gavin Newsom said Elder wanted immigrants with visas in cages.
Every possible story positioning him as a radical conservative was made.
It worked.
Republicans in the recall chose Elder by over 4 to 1 versus Faulconer and I never even heard of him until someone commented on my post last week mentioning his name.
Basic plan was finding someone who could take a democrat, independent or even Republican unhappy with Newsom and freak them out with someone they’d see as crazy.
And this strategy works pretty awesome.
In Delaware in 2010, a congressman named Mike Castle who was the states only congressman for over a decade ran for senate, to replace Joe Biden. He was a Republican and polls had him beating the Democrats by 10-20 points.
The DNC in Delaware acted like Christine O’Donnell, the anti masturbation witch lady was going to be the nominee. They went really hard on her before she won the primary and built GOP support.
Next example was 2012 with the Missouri senate race Claire McCaskill was the incumbent senator and democrat. A woman named Sarah Steelman who was the former treasurer of Missouri ran and polls had her leading McCaskill by anywhere from 5-12 points.
McCaskill responded by paying for ads attacking congressman Todd Akin who was a far right wing congressman arrested several times for protesting abortion clinics. Missouri which is a moderate right wing state wouldn’t vote for a guy like him and her putting ads against him, basically made the GOP primary voters back him.
Delaware & Missouri are two examples of candidate forcing, which is totally legal, not in anyway unethical and a pretty smart practice to win.
California is another example of this.
Kevin Faulconer versus Gavin Newsom
Realistically, Newsom wins.
California is a pretty left leaning state and in an anti Trump era, he’d still probably get it.
Faulconer though would probably get it to be a tossup race though, versus the complete blowout Larry Elder saw. Which the recall being 64% for Newsom was generous to Elder. If this was a real one on one election, Newsom would win with over 70%.
Writing this, I’m not a bit Newsom fan. I’d take him over Larry Elder, but would support Kevin Faulconer easily over Newsom. If Faulconer runs in 2022 and is the GOP nominee, I could see a real race happening and Newsom will have an actual close call.
I don’t see that happening, because the GOP seems more interested in saying they lost by voter fraud over adopting the Mitch Daniels, Charlie Bakers and Larry Hogan’s of the world that actually win.