Thoughts on why this article exists, if the claim Biden/Harris can’t win again is true and who would actually be a good replacement.
Why this exists
It gets clicks.
I’ve run political websites before and was pretty good at getting gimmicky headlines to go viral.
This causes controversy, gets shared around and says something that won’t happen, but let’s people play Game of Thrones, White House edition.
It’s also a really strong tool for Republicans to share it.
Joe Biden beat Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton lost.
Keep Hillary’s name in the process and rally republicans on someone they dislike heavily.
That’s the only reason this exists.
What are Biden/Harris’s 2024 odds?
This year with the midterm elections will be a good indicator, but not everything.
Barack Obama in 2010 had the Democrats lose senate & gubernatorial races in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin, but he won each of those in 2012. He also lost Illinois for his own senate seat and has a year before the midterms, a loss in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedy’s seat.
Comparing maps, Joe Biden to win has to worry about Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin in the midterms.
For those states, two are currently held by democrats that are newly elected incumbents, one is a Republican retiring and one is a Republican staying with Wisconsin.
If I had to take a guess, Republicans hold Wisconsin, lose Arizona, win Georgia and lose Pennsylvania.
This map isn’t good for Joe Biden, but isn’t a death sentence and is not as bad as 2010, which is the same midterm map.
Who would be better than Joe Biden?
From a purely political look, I’d give Biden a 60% chance of beating Trump again.
I also think despite approvals, he’d actually be able to beat Trump by even more, due to things like January 6th, the number of republicans who won’t endorse again and how many flops he had in his term.
The overall turnout of Biden v Trump probably drops and I’d not be shocked if a third party/independent cleared 5-10% of the vote, but Biden would likely clear out the needed votes.
But just for the question of who’d be better and probably beat Donald Trump easily.
I’ll give one name and that’s Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.
Moderate, but not Joe Manchin.
Career before senator was being an astronaut, which could be cool for people.
Husband to congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was victim to an attack years ago.
It’d be a really easy win for Democrats.
Final thoughts
This is a post really just on basic political strategy.
I sort of feel for Biden, while he’s not doing a job I’d call great, it’s not as bad as people think and he’s not in this horror story for re-election, the hard left and right want to believe.
I’m also not writing this as a Biden supporter. If it’s Joe Biden v Donald Trump, Biden 100% has my vote. If Republicans nominated someone like Chris Sununu, Charlie Baker, Ben Sasse or John Kasich, I’d back them over Biden barring something I’m overlooking.
All said and done, it’s 2022 and too early to discuss this, but hey, I did.