All what will happen in Venezuela on Sunday 20th in 3 scenarios

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2018-05-18 17:34

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I know that all Steemian users -or a few some of- are pending about what is going on in #Venezuela those days. Specially when this sunday -casually, after Harry and Megan wedding- venezuelan people has the choice to pick who will rule their -i mean OUR- country after that day. Every people there can choice between two candidates -sorry for Bertucci- most favorites for the poll question about a presidential election, not recognized by some countries as the American States Organization -where Venezuela will be released on 2019- quialify it as fraud

Javier Bertucci, the other candidate. Picture Courtesy

Henry Falcon, the disident from Hugo Chavez party will face the actual president and succesor of the deceased leader in 2013, Nicolás Maduro. But also, Javier Bertucci; a christian leader of a church called El Evangelio Cambia -Evangel Changes- is facing this contend with some followers who can rest the place of Falcon as first option in the fight against Maduro

For this article, i have prepared tree scenarios about the result of the election and beyond that day. It's simply: Maduro would be the winner of this election for several reasons. One of these is the not support for Opponents for this event by the coallition called "Mesa de la Unidad" - Unity Table- and the "Frente Amplio Venezuela Libre" -Venezuela Freedom Wide Front-, considered as "illegal" from last both, who called to not vote for make abstinence as a lead choice.

But what could i say? Even Canada forbids Venezuelan Embassy and Consulates to install poll centers in its diplomatics buildings located in the country. Therefore, Panama and Colombia still not recognizing this ellection as legal. So, it is not weird that these countries -as Argentina and Brazil- follow the canadian steps. Blameful. Because Donald Trump are not agree to being celebrated a franchise in Venezuela doesn't mean it won't be celebrated at all.

THE FIRST SCENARIO: MADURO WINS

How could be possible? Will Maduro wins this elections? It's more possible due to the abstention call of the opposition dome in first instace. Even if Henry Falcon is favorite for face Maduro on Sunday -with a very far-away remote probability of beat him-, the number of vote or support will not be enough. However, some political parties like COPEI will suport Falcon in this election as another candidate, Luis Alejandro Ratti , declined his postulation to suport the Chavez ' disident

¿WHAT WOULD HAPPEN AFTER SUNDAY IF MADURO WINS?

If Maduro wins, he will keep going his program of change the economy -well, he had five years to do that- a monetary reform called Bolivar Soberano; which consist in consists in subtracting three zeroes from the battered currency after hyperinflation levels. This will be the second time in Venezuela's history that this kind of change occurs after Hugo Chavez administration did the same in 2008. However, he will keep the social programs like food benfits and house building programs.

Never fucked mind if international community won't recongnize him as President. He will rule Venezuela from this sunday

SECOND SCENARIO: FALCON WINS

Surprisely, Henry Falcon resulted the winner of this election. he had fought almost alone after support denial from "MUD"-as been called the 'Unity Table for Democracy'- and parties as "Accion Democrática"-in english for Democratic Action- and "Primero Justicia" -Justice First-. All of these don't recognize the role of the Constitutional Assembly where the president-elect should be sworn in. He will do -or he is forced to do- that last to assume his presidential functions. If he doesn't, because he considered illegal that institution, the assembly would declare a vacuum of power and then call for new elections. Obviously none of the previous candidates would not face in the next presidantial election after the vacuum.

¿WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF FALCON WINS?

If Henry Falcon wins the elections, he would make the US Dollar as a national currency -which is illegal according the Venezuelan Constitution. LMAO He will do so aganist that law-, to erradicate the hyperinflation index rated by IMF at 13000% for this year. Also he promised that all salaries and tabulators would be expressed in Dollars. The ugliest face for this 'beautiful' promise is that will be the only 'pretty one'. Because if we look at the economy of Ecuador; which is dolarizated before Correa asumed in 2006, the only good is there is no Inflation but the salary is -or was- the poorest one, the access of the services was -or still being- creepy for the most vulnerable people.

The other face is the systematic privatization of all state industries, PDVSA in the first place, all the public services would be privatized. The power of adquisition will be more perjudicated as today -even more- when the social programs would be erradicated. The supposed humanitarian corridor, proposed by the opositors of Maduro, would be an entire falacy after having taken many measures that would affect the most vulnerable, from massive layoffs to evictions of people for the eradication of the social housing program, as well as the benefit of the food box, considered by the opposition as a humiliating expense that extrangulates the national production as the price regulation on basic products, probably erradicated as the first.

That would make Venezuela greater again, ¿isn't it?

THIRD SCENARIO: MADURO POSTPOSES ELECTIONS

Lets imagine that a huge earthquake occurs in Caracas or a Tsunami who kills thousand of people in Porlamar or Maracaibo. Lets imagine also that huge disaster will affect more the election process. There would be no option for the president and the electoral authorities to get franchise suspended untill new advice. Not in the way requested by govern oposition and some members of the foreign community. Remember, there is a hidden reason about the elction will be celebrated this sunday and not in december such as previous polls.

After all, the Constitutional Assembly is writting a new constitution to be approved after an eventual referendum...

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All what will happen in Venezuela on Sunday 20th in 3 scenarios