Mexican leftist and two-time presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is in the race again, only this time it looks like he will coast to the presidency.
A new poll conducted by Mexican polling firm Parametria puts Obrador at 11 points ahead of all other candidates in the race. The poll results are as follows:
Obrador (Morena-PT-PES) - 31%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PNA) - 20%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC) -19%
Zavala - (Independent) - 10%
Rodriguez - (Independent) - 2%
(For a description of the general ideology of each coalition running, please see information at the bottom of the post)
Mexico has a presidential election system in which the president serves one six-year term, and is barred from running for reelection. Whoever gets the largest share of the popular vote wins the presidency, there is no runoff election system in Mexico, and no president has gotten a majority of votes since 1988. The upper house of the Mexican legislature, the Senate, is elected every six years alongside the president. There also is an election every 3 years in line with presidential elections, to fill the seats of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of a bicameral legislature.
Obrador ran in both the 2006 and the 2012 presidential elections, finishing second in both races, and never giving an official concession in either election. Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City, obtained 14,756,350 votes and a share of 35.31% of the vote in 2006, in comparison to conservative PAN candidate Felipe Calderón's 15,000,284 votes and 35.89% share of the vote. Obrador worked hard to try and get a full recount based on some irregularities in the election, however, was ultimately rejected a full recount and the small-scale recounts on specific irregularities in regions gave him no advantage over Felipe Calderón. In 2012 Obrador earned 15,896,999 votes and got 31.59% of the vote, but was trounced by Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI, who earned 19,226,284 and got 38.21% of the vote. This time, the PRI is reeling in corruption scandals and poor governance, and the PAN conservative vote is split between former president Calderón's wife Margarita Zavala, an independent, and Ricardo Anaya Cortés, the current PAN candidate. Obrador and his loyal base could not be in a better position to win the presidency.
In terms of policy, Obrador is an outspoken left-wing populist. He is opposed to the NAFTA free trade deal and wants to be the President during its renegotiation. He supports cutting taxes for the poor and making the wealthy pay a larger amount. He wants to stimulate agriculture in Mexico, and crush monopolies to bring back competition in Mexican businesses. He supports amnesty for drug war criminals. Lastly, he wants to cut unnecessary government spending and pay for government officials to save government money in the long run. US President Trump may be adding to his election chances, as the Mexican people may feel he is a man both strong enough and economically literate enough to stand up to and challenge Trump.
Obrador faces 3 other viable candidates with a shot at defeating him, conservative Ricardo Anaya Cortés, conservative Margarita Zavala, and centrist José Antonio Meade. Zavala and Cortés will likely split the conservative vote as shown by the polls listed earlier. Meade, on the other hand, is going to have the trouble of defending his parties corrupt and failed legacy. The PRI and current president Nieto are marred by scandals of corruption. Alongside this, murder is at a record high in Mexico as the drug war continues to tear the country apart, and the weak economy of only 2% growth, high inflation, and a depreciating peso is damaging his chances of victory.
Description of each Coalition and the parties within it:
Morena-PT-PES - Running Andrés Manuel López Obrador (pictured at top of post)
Moreana is a political movement created by Obrador in 2012, it is a left-wing populist party running largely on economic leftism and appeals to a broad spectrum of voters. It is opposed to the economic trade deal NAFTA and wants it repealed or reformed. PT is the Labour Party of Mexico, it is rooted in democratic socialist ideals and is left-wing all round. PES is the Social Encounter Party, which is a conservative right-wing party strong on socially conservative values. PES's coalition involvement is leading some to think Obrador will legislate as an economic leftist and a social conservative if elected, but they are a small party and may end up having little to no influence on his policy.
PRI-PCEM-PNA - Running José Antonio Meade (pictured below)
The PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) is a centrist party in Mexico that ruled Mexico from 1929 till the 2000 election, which saw them lose to the PAN party. They are also the current party in power, as they won the presidential election of 2012 and the parliamentary elections of 2015. Supports free trade and neoliberal economic policies, generally associated with corruption and corporatism. The PVEM (Ecologist Green Party of Mexico) is a center-right socially conservative environmentalist party. The PNA (New Alliance Party) is a centrist economic liberal party.
(PC - Wikipedia) (Meade)
PAN-PRD-MC - Running Ricardo Anaya Cortés (pictured below)
PAN (National Action Party) is a center-right to right-wing social conservative political party in Mexico. Economically they support free trade, small government, and privatization. The party is strongly connected to its interpretations of Catholicism. PAN is the only other party other than the PRI to hold the presidency in Mexico and was in power from 2000 to 2012. The PRD is a center-left to left-wing party that advocates for social democracy, is non-interventionist, socially liberal, and a greater role of the government in the economy. The PRD's candidate for president in 2006 and 2012 was Obrador, but he left the party after losing in the preceding months after losing the 2012 election. The PRD and PAN are diametric opposites on the political spectrum but formed a coalition this year in order to ensure a loss for the PRI and Obrador. MC (Citizen's Movement) is a center-left democratic socialist party that runs on progressivism, environmentalism, feminism, and secularism, like the PRD, it is odd they have formed a coalition with the center-right PAN. (PC - Proceso) (Cortés)
Margarita Zavala is the wife of former Mexican president Felipe Calderon of the PAN party. She announced her bid for the presidency as early as 2015 and initially wanted to become the main candidate for the PAN party. The party had other plans in mind, and decided to form a coalition with the PRD and the MC parties and chose Anaya to be their candidate instead. Zavala is choosing to still run as an independent regardless of the rejection of the PAN, if the election continues with her polling at the same position she currently is, she will be a major thorn in the side for the PAN party and split the vote, giving Obrador an even bigger shot at winning. (PC - Wikipedia) (Zavala)
Jaime Heliodoro Rodríguez Calderón is an independent formerly affiliated with the PRI, that has taken a hardline stance against crime in the past. He is currently the governor of the Mexican state Nuevo León.
(PC - Alchetron)
(Calderón, this picture is small, but still is larger than his chances of winning)
Who do you think has the best chance of winning the election in Mexico? Please give your opinion in the comments! Thanks for reading!
Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_general_election,_2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election/mexico-presidential-hopeful-hemmed-in-by-ruling-party-legacy-idUSKBN1EL0ZO
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election-exclusive/exclusive-mexican-leftist-has-11-point-lead-ahead-of-2018-election-poll-idUSKBN1ED2JJ