A response to my friend Mariya Ivancheva
Óscar Reyes-Matute / מתת
The title will attract hatred: the government will argue that the only President is Nicolás Maduro Moros, back in Miraflores, while the opposition will argue that the only President (in charge) is deputy Juan Guaidó, there on the street.
But this headline, which I took from the NY Times, sums up the situation that we are living in Venezuela, and that I fear will be maintained until one of the two forces in conflict breaks down or deflates.
My friend Mariya Ivancheva worries about "the United States interference in Venezuelan politics" when Donald Trump immediately recognized Guaidó as president (e). And one could interpret - forcing the argument - that one tries to say covertly that the United States invented Guaidó, and everything that is happening in Caracas.
But the truth is that everything that happens here - the good and the bad - is an absolutely native creation of the Venezuelans. We have naive enough to create this disaster, and we can do even worse in the coming days.
My first argument to Mariya is that she should also blaspheme the other countries that have recognized Guaidó: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Georgia, the OAS and the Lima group. Admittedly, the US has had moments of being "The Big Stick", with invasions to countries in the region such as Cuba, Panama and Nicaragua, but I do not remember Canada, Ecuador or Brazil leaving their borders to "establish freedom, democracy, etc ... "(that we did with Bolívar in the 19th century, long before the Yankees) or to expand their territories, markets and borders by military means. So there is no Grand Garrote tradition in most of the countries that have supported Guaidó. That Mary only blasphemes the USA can be a distant echo of what Jean Francoise Revel aptly called "The Anti-American Obsession."
IS IT LEGITIMATE GUAIDÓ?
From the strictly constitutional point of view, it is. A President can not call elections when he pleases, or swear to whomever he pleases, and that's what Maduro did.
The presidential lapses are prescribed in the Constitution (in December of last year was when the election should have taken place, not when he convened it - presidents in office do not have the power to call elections either - and it is also prescribed before whom you have to swear: before the National Assembly, elected by absolute majority of Venezuelans in 2015 (80% of the deputies) If you do not meet these two formal steps, you can not claim legitimacy.The fault is not Guaidó or USA but Maduro and Associates Borrell, who warned: "We will recognize him (as Maduro) as legitimate President until he has underestimated the national and international impact that this violation of the Constitution would have. on January 10, 2019. "The rest is recent history.
Carmona Estanga (2002) had no popular representation, nobody voted for him to have auctoritas and be sworn in. That's why his building collapsed in two days.
This case is different, and since there is a legal-constitutional argument, it is easier for governments that do not like Maduro to recognize Guaidó. In these cases, my friends, the formal mechanisms of democracies matter, and they are favoring Guaidó.
DOES MADURO REMAIN AS PRESIDENT?
Of course, because he is in Miraflores (he is in the White House), dispatching, with cannons at his disposal, and with a series of bandit countries like Russia and Cuba or very poor in their democratic conditions like Bolivia, which they support.
So yes, there are two Presidents as the NY Times says.
Is this possible? Of course it is possible, fuck! It is what we are seeing in Venezuela, learn that politics today is like quantum physics! And if a photon can behave as a wave and also as a particle, then why cannot there be two Presidents simultaneously?
Now, these duplicities -as well as those that occur at the level of micro particles- are very unstable, so that at the moment when the energy ends up in one of the forms (the wave or the particle, Maduro or Guaidó) , the system will be inclined towards only one, and just as in the micro particles there are explosions and violent events, it can also happen in the political and social aspects.
It is already Thursday afternoon, and we are still with two Presidents.
I do not think Maduro sent SEBIM to assault the US embassy (it would be casus belli). And this government works like Alcoholics Anonymous: my concern is not to stop drinking, but to not drink today, and so I continue tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow ... Well, the government only cares to survive today Thursday, tomorrow Friday, the weekend, and if the Venezuelan army do not manifest against him (with tanks and planes), or the US do not move the aircraft carrier that is in Curazao they can perfectly continue in this duality, hoping that Guaidó will deflate, that international pressure will come down, and hunt down some carelessness to imprison the self-sworn President.
And, like Alcoholics Anonymous and the Maduro government, I already survived today with this response to my dear friend, philosopher and political scientist. Tomorrow I'll see…
Video recommended: Juan Guaidó swears as Interim Presidente of Venezuela.
