Why the Trump/Mattis Duo's Strong Arming Won't Work with China
Today, the Pentagon once again sailed a warship into the heavily-disputed South China sea. This is the second time in President Trump's short time in office that a warship has been sailed into waters that China insists belongs to them. This is a clear case of political strong arming, as the warship has no reason to be in those waters, besides being a quick reactionary force in the case of an armed conflict between the two countries, and as an anti-pirate task force for the surrounding area.
Politicians and military officials state that ensuring the international waters of the South China Sea remains international, and it would seem that the President's way of doing that is by shows of military force.
Here is why that is not going to work with China.
Let's take a look at history. Many of you may not be aware of the Hainan Island Incident. In 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a United States surveillance plane over the South China Sea, killing the Chinese pilot and forcing the US Navy crew to make an emergency landing. The ensuing turmoil enraged Chinese citizens, who reacted by hacking into US public and private networks, defacing websites and stealing data. During the ensuing political arguments, China issued a $1 million bill for the downed Chinese J8 fighter jet and the loss of its pilot. US politicians refused, halting negotiations before paying the much smaller expense bill for the feeding and housing of the US crew and the dismantling and shipment of the US spy plane, at a cost of around $35,000.
The memory of the 1999 "accidental" bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia was still fresh in China's mind, and I would imagine the memory of Belgrade and Lt. Cdr. Wang is still just as fresh as well. China has always been extremely opposed to Western (and Japanese) colonialism, and they view the United States military action in the area as a method of stifling their own, rightful expansion. The direct result of these actions is not caution or fear, it's anger.
Military show of force also misses the mark in Chinese culture as well.
Notice during the military whose-is-bigger match between the United States and North Korea is not something you see out of China. North Korea likes to pull their military out for any and every possible occasion to show off their mighty, forced labor, starving combat force. The US also likes to show off the big guns, parading new technology and superior fire power in front of the cameras to make sure the world knows what's up.
China is a bit more private with their military. They host coordinated marches on certain Communist Party holidays, but generally don't show their hand very often. That's because China doesn't value shows of force like Western countries do. The Chinese government is more conciliatory, preferring a shrouded dagger over a mounted cannon, preferring soft power over military might. They assert themselves politically and economically, showing their power by dominating the world economically or asserting themselves in the cyber realm.
Thus, the Trump military flexing exercise is lost on China. It's an annoyance, and doesn't garner their respect (or fear) like the President thinks it might. I'm not saying I don't think Trump is being advised of the historical and cultural issues with his show of force; I think he's ignoring the advice and acting as the "speak softly, and carry a big stick" president... minus the speaking softly part. It is my opinion that further military shows of force in the South China sea is not merely going to fall on deaf ears: it is going to do more damage than good.