China on North Korea: Where Does Our "Ally" Stand?
North Korea seems to be rivaling Russia for coverage in today's Western Main Stream Media, a 24-hour cycle of alarmist hawks battling with naive doves battling for the podium. Trump is giving enough attention to the matter to keep up his war of words with China, but hasn't released any definitive plan on what he or SecDef Mattis plans to do about the Hermit Nation.
An aside on Mattis: it is my opinion that he is the one smart pick made by Donald for the current administration's cabinet. Many on the Left have tried to paint him as an extremist hawk. While the hawk accusation is undoubtedly true, he is far from extremist. His every word is calculated, as are his actions, and he seems extremely "business" oriented, in that you haven't seen much of Gen. Mattis in the news unless it regards him getting the job done.
China and North Korea's relationship has come under close scrutiny since Trump's campaign brought it to light, but the DPRK ties to China are based in history. China supported North Korea during the Korean War, a move most attribute to the US crossing the 38th Parallel, and have been close trading partners since the 1950's and 1960's. Kim Jung-Il and Mao Zedong had a close personal relationship and strengthened their ties as Chairman Mao attempted to create a stronger Asia-Pacific region.
More recently, China has been viewed as NK's only true friend, but that facade seems to be breaking before our very eyes. July 4th of 2006 seems to be the day the world saw the first knot come unraveled between the Asian superpowers. North Korea launched a missile test and the world saw for the first time a public rebuke from Beijing. Since then, Beijing has kept up the public war of words with the Kim regime, especially as Kim Jung-Un has stepped up testing and development of nuclear weapons and missile systems.
Economic ties between the nations have been tense. UN sanctions have essentially blocked all trade between the two countries entirely, and China has publicly turned away North Korean coal ships at port. They've stopped short of kicking ambassadors out of their embassies like the Russians and Americans seem to be apt to do, but ties have definitely gotten terse. KCNA, the North Korean state-sponsored news agency, has turned a cold shoulder on Beijing and condemns the economic sanctions set upon it by Beijing and the UN.
This is not to say that there is not money being made. A US investigation into Chinese ties to NK is still underway, and several Chinese companies are being blocked from entering the US market, citing claims that they may be violating sanctions under the table. Accusations that North Korean ambassadors are selling drugs out of their embassies have circled the news, and Chinese boats shipping technology across to their neighbor have been caught on camera red-handed. Whether this is state-sanctioned sanction dodging, or newly capitalist communists trying to make a quick buck off of North Korean desperation, we do not yet know.
As I showed in my last post regarding technological and economic ties, China is very rightfully suspected to be dodging sanctions and furthering ties with North Korea behind the international community's back. This could mean that the condemnation by both of the nation's state controlled media could be smoke and mirrors, designed to make it look like ties are cut.
China also seems to be coming out against several of the most recent defense measures enacted by the West against North Korea. They condemned the THAAD missile deployment in South Korea, and came out very publicly against joint military exercises in the region. They have rarely enacted their own sanctions in response to missile and nuclear tests, usually choosing to do so only when a UN resolution forces them to. Their overall outlook towards the North Korean regime seems to be pretty doveish. A paper written by a team of Chinese scholars for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released two papers, by American and Chinese political scholars, where the Chinese side seemed incredibly reluctant to condemn North Korea and came out relatively heavily against provocative measures against the Kim regime. The overall doveish policy towards North Korea could be a sign that Beijing has not quite picked a side in the impending conflict between NK and the US.
At the very least, under the table sanctions dodging and doveish behavior concerning a nuclear neighbor should have US policymakers and intelligence officials nervous about just where our ally stands. I await more news about the economic investigations, and will be updating the blog based on what I find.
Resources:
New York Times Q&A on China-North Korea relations.
CSIS Joint Report and Podcast on US-China Relations.
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