It's been about a month since the last time I posted an article here, because I've been preoccupied with an unpleasant detail that frequently gets in the way of my writing: my job. December is a rough time for public school waijiaos in Beijing because the students are getting ready for final exams as well as End-Of-Year performances (the government no longer allows Christmas parties because it's a foreign holiday, but no school here can resist the opportunity to sacrifice instructional time for some idiotic song and dance performance that no one except the school staff sees, so nothing has changed except that they are now not Christmas themed and are called "End-of-Year performances" or "Winter performances"). The fact that I have begun studying Russian has not increased my spare time either, I will admit (my God, what a language).
In any case, as of today my school's foreign teacher classes have finished until March, which means I am officially on vacation for the next two months. I don't have the time or the space to comment on everything that has happened since my last article. I hoped to finish 2018 with some quick thoughts on three main points: G20, the US withdrawal from Syria (and, it is rumored, Afghanistan as well in the near future), and Defense Secretary James Mattis's Resignation. However, it seems those will have to wait for later this week.
For the moment, I'd like to simply state that by all indications, 2019 is likely to be a watershed year. George Friedman (who I've found to be right more often than wrong when it comes to geopolitical forecasting) and his staff have predicted tumultuous changes (GPF Staff), but since they make their money off of selling subscriptions to their predictions, it's easy to guess that they predict such things every year in order to capitalize on the New Year Rush. Instead of repeating what many (including Friedman) have already said, I'd like to zoom in on one change taking place early in 2019, and announced near the end of 2018, (Associated Press, SCMP) that probably did not get much attention, though I would posit that perhaps it should have. Japan's emperor is resigning (South China Morning Post, Facebook).
Among the changes taking place in Japan, the passage from one ceremonial head-of-state to the next, holding an office of only symbolic authority, doesn't seem important on the surface.
...Again, "on the surface."
Look again.
A Change in More Calendars than One
"君が代は (Kimigayo wa)
千代に八千代に (Chiyo ni yachiyo ni)
さざれ石の (Sazareishi no)
巌となりて (Iwao to narite)
苔のむすまで (Koke no musu made)
ENGLISH TRANSLATION:
"May the reign of the Emperor
continue for a thousand, nay, eight thousand generations
and for the eternity that it takes
for small pebbles to grow into a great rock
and become covered with moss."
-Japanese National Anthem
First and foremost, it is necessary to understand what many in the West forget, namely just how central the emperor is to Japan's national identity. Japan has had the same ruling family for 2,000 years (Pruitt), albeit with emperors in various ages waxing and waning in power, including numerous epochs where shoguns held more power than the emperor in whose name they ruled. In Japanese culture, the change of an emperor marks a complete change in the calendar, the equivalent to switching from B.C. to A.D. on the Gregorian Calendar (Agence France-Presse). For Japan, the transition from one emperor to another is, quite literally, the end of an era.
But beneath the symbolism, what does it mean? To answer that, one must look at what the emperor is to Japan today: a symbol. And upon a closer look, it is no coincidence that Japan is choosing now to change their symbol.
Japan's new emperor, Naruhito, is the son of Akihito and the grandson of Hirohito, each of whom was the quintessential symbol of Japan's role in (and attitude toward) the world in their respective reign. Hirohito was the military-minded dictator in whose name Japan launched a campaign that saw them, even if only for a short time, as the rulers of nearly all of Eastern Asia. While we would be remiss to praise Hirohito's Japan too heavily after the brutality for which this empire became known, even the devil must be given his due. Hirohito was the emperor who finally avenged Japan for Yuan China's* two failed invasion attempts six centuries prior (Szczepanski, "Kublai"), and was the first Asian leader since Genghis Khan to bring the self-anointed "Central Nation" to its knees.** Even after surrendering, such was Hirohito's status in the eyes of his people that it was his command more than anything else that spurred them on to their rapid shift from a military power to an economic power (Fisher). Hirohito held the Chrysanthemum Throne until 1989 (the year of the Tiananmen Square Massacre and the Dalai Lama's Nobel Peace Prize), meaning he bore witness to the Kissinger Betrayal.
As for Akihito, he has never shown much interest in politics. He's been a scholar and philosopher who has rarely gotten involved in Japan's political affairs, preferring to leave the government to Japan's never-ending line of rapidly-changing Prime Ministers. This laissez-faire attitude has been as symbolic of Japan during his 30 year reign as his father's fanaticism was of Japan in the 1930's and '40's, as well as its Post-WW2 economic rise. Under Akihito, Japan has been both passive and pacifist. Despite the fact that the government was not in any meaningful way led by the emperor, the country and its emperor have seemed inextricably intertwined by common attitude.
So, what shall we make of the transition from one emperor to another? It's historic. No Japanese emperor in 200 years has resigned while he still drew breath. Also, it comes amid clashes between Akihito and Shinzo Abe over the latter's insistence on reasserting Japan's cout as a military powerhouse (Sala). It has been asserted that this resignation is a protest against Abe's policy of re-arming, a theory partly supported by Akihito's declaration that he was proud that his reign was one of peace.
But is it a protest against Abe's insistence on re-arming... or is it a concession to the necessity of it?
Think about it. The emperor, as I have belabored here, is a symbol, more than a ruler. So what could be a more perfect way to convey to the Japanese people that a new age was upon them than to mark such a massive departure from Japan's pacifist constitution by changing emperors?
It's not a theory I would carve in stone yet, but it bears examination.
So let's look at the new emperor.
According to this video by the South China Morning Post, the new resident of the Chrysanthemum Throne is a musician (a viola player), and by all accounts a good one. He holds a doctorate, and is the father of one child and one child only: a daughter. His wife is neither a noble (as was the tradition through Hirohito) nor a commoner (as was Akihito's wife), but a diplomat. His words to her upon asking her to marry him were "I will protect you for the rest of my life with all my strength." Rather strong and impassioned words in this day and age. Like his nation, which is currently facing a demographic crisis (population decline), Naruhito's household is facing a demographic crisis of its own (no male heir, and too many nieces who lose royal status if they wed). The notion of viewing the emperor as a more literal symbol of Japan than merely a figurehead seems, oddly, less and less far-fetched the closer one looks.
I haven't had time to research the man that thoroughly, but my limited investigation so far shows him to be a man who, if he is to be the symbol of a nation in a new era, will not reign over a nation as meek and passive as many in the world have foolishly come to expect Japan to be. Can one expect an emperor who is fond of the fine arts not to engage strongly with the West? Can one expect an imperial monarch who vowed to protect his bride-to-be "for all [his] life and with all his strength," and who, by all accounts, has made good on that vow even as his wife has struggled to cope with adjustment disorder (Shinji), to reign over a nation that will not arm itself to protect its people from Chinese aggression (or Western Aggression as well, if they perceive it as such)?
Again, it's a lot of speculation, and to most Western eyes it probably looks ridiculous, given that the Japanese emperor's political power is so non-existent that he is not even permitted to voice his opinion on political matters in public, but it is undeniable that every time in recent centuries that Japan has changed emperors, Japan has transformed. It's undeniable that Japan has been grinding toward a transformative era, as is evident by Shinzo Abe's actions. And it's undeniable that this passage from one emperor to the next (and recall what a major event that is in the eyes of the Japanese) comes at a highly "coincidental" time.
I believe 2019 will be the year when Japan's enemies, especially China, learn a valuable lesson: "Riben zhang shi lai (Japan has stood up)."
*I refer to the these invasions as "Chinese" with tongue in cheek. While most of the world considers Kublai Khan's empire to be the Mongolian Empire, it must be noted that Chinese history books deny there ever was a Mongolian conquest of China. They refer to this empire as the "Yuan Dynasty" and insist it was Chinese, which is the basis of their territorial claims over Tibet. It is funny how they suddenly deny it was Chinese when its aggression contradicts their laughable claims that China has "never invaded any country," not that Yuan would be the only exception to the fallacy of THAT statement. I refer to it as Chinese here because if China wishes to claim credit for Kublai Khan's conquests, they must take the blame for his aggression as well, especially his aggression toward the nation China tries to paint as the quintessential devil more than all others: Japan.
**Though as I have stated before, Tamerlane would almost certainly have done so as well had he not died on the way to punish China for their arrogance (Szczepanski, "Yongle")
Works Cited
Abe, Namiko. "Kimigayo: Japanese National Anthem." Thoughtco.com. 29 Mar, 2017. Web, 30 Dec, 2018.
https://www.thoughtco.com/japanese-national-anthem-kimigayo-2028070
Agence France-Presse. "Emperor Akihito’s exit Resets Japanese Calendar." South China Morning Post. 28 Aug, 2018. Web, 30 Dec, 2018.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2161646/end-era-emperor-akihitos-exit-resets-japanese-calendar
Associated Press. "Japan’s Emperor Akihito Marks Emotional Final Birthday on Throne." South China Morning Post. 23 Dec, 2018. Web, 30 Dec, 2018.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2179258/japans-emperor-akihito-marks-emotional-final-birthday-throne
Fisher, Max. "The Emperor's Speech: 67 Years Ago, Hirohito Transformed Japan Forever." The Atlantic. 15 Aug, 2012. Web, 30 Dec, 2018.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/the-emperors-speech-67-years-ago-hirohito-transformed-japan-forever/261166/
GPF Staff. "The World in 2019: A Year on the Edge." Geopolitical Futures. 18 Dec, 2018 (Updated 3 Jan, 2019). Web, 31 Dec, 2018.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/world-2019-year-edge/
Pruitt, Sarah. "6 Things You Might Not Know About Emperor Akihito and Japan’s Monarchy." History.com. 11 Aug, 2016. Web, 31 Dec, 2018.
https://www.history.com/news/6-things-you-might-not-know-about-emperor-akihito-and-japans-monarchy
Sala, Ilaria Maria. "The Real Reason Japan's Emperor Wants to Abdicate." 14 Aug, 2016. Web, 31 Dec, 2018.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/article/2003034/real-reason-japans-emperor-wants-abdicate
South China Morning Post. Video Summary of Emperor Akihito's Reign in Japan. Facebook. 30 Dec, 2018, 3:30 PM. https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/286528025397508/ . Accessed 31 Dec, 2018.
Shinji, Yamashita. "Crown Prince Naruhito: A Profile of Japan’s Next Emperor." 17 May, 2018. Web, 31 Dec, 2018.
https://www.nippon.com/en/currents/d00400/
Szczepanski, Kallie. "The Mongol Invasions of Japan." Thoughtco.com. 3 July, 2018. Web, 30 Jan, 2018.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mongol-invasions-of-japan-195559
Szczepanski, Kallie. "The Yongle Emperor Zhu Di." Thoughtco.com. 16 July, 2017. Web, 31 Dec, 2018.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-yongle-emperor-zhu-di-195231