At first glance, Facebook appears to be a useful resource for anecdotally measuring popular sentiment. Many of my digital friends are fellow liberal millennials who are at a loss over everything Donald Trump. Countless vlogs of progressive outrage and links to condescending think pieces relentlessly clog my news feed. The worst part is that videos posted to Facebook now play with audio enabled by default. Within this content saturation is a recurring theme; impeaching Donald Trump. I take it that many of my digital friends coexist in a bubble similar to mine, albeit more fortified against conservative dissent.
An obscure legal scholar lays out a half-baked conspiracy theory that invokes the charge of “obstruction of justice” too frequently and ends in a Trump impeachment. Some blogger posts a C-SPAN feed of Maxine Waters forcefully denouncing the president and calling for his impeachment on the floor of the House. A snarky dose Daily Kos delirium rambles on about Jared Kushner and Michael Flynn and Russia. Bernie Sanders inevitably makes an appearance somewhere.
Sure, plenty of people out there who are bored at work and vigorously skimming social media instead of going through the motions of corporate drudgery believe that Donald Trump will be impeached. Some are expecting him to be removed from office as early as the 2018 midterms, despite no concrete evidence of his high crimes and misdemeanors, at least for now. The prospect of impeachment makes them as giddy as Ted Cruz at a pro-life rally. Beyond the temporary euphoria of vindication, has anyone actually thought about what the consequences of impeachment would be? I would say probably not or else they wouldn’t be pining for it so badly.
Perhaps Hillary Clinton would be vindicated and the three million more people who voted for her, not him, would get to stick it to all of those Trumpian yahoos from the Rust Belt with their raised pickups and unironic jingoism. Then the Democrats will retake Congress and everyone will have free college. Sanders-Harris 2020, anyone? Ultimately, we all must come down even from the greatest of highs.
Suppose damning evidence of illegal misconduct surfaces and indicts Trump. Under immense political pressure, Republicans draft and narrowly pass articles of impeachment. Then, the president is tried in the Senate and removed from office thanks to the last minute support of John McCain, Susan Collins and Ben Sasse. Finally, Mike Pence is sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. There lies the problem with impeaching Donald Trump. If you think our government is backwards and regressive now, just wait until you see what Mike Pence does.
Mike Pence is a lifelong social conservative who also (unironically) supports every single one of Trump’s policies. He endorsed gay conversion therapy during his 2000 congressional campaign, advocates for the outlawing of abortion and passed a “religious liberty” law as Governor of Indiana that legalized discrimination against LGBT people. His most memorable quote was that he is “a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order.” Apparently “American” isn’t one of the many diverse, intersectional identities that Mike Pence holds. However, don’t be fooled. Pence is not just another angry white conservative from opioid country nor is he another flamboyant reality TV star-turned politician.
Rather, he is a skilled and adept statesman whose resume includes items such as influential congressman, Chairman of the House Republican Caucus, Governor of the 16th most populous state and 48th Vice President of the United States. There is little doubt that, as president, Pence would effectively leverage his clout with the Republican base, his congressional relationships and his executive experience as both a governor and a vice president to pursue an ideologically right-wing agenda. He would very likely bring actual competency and order to the West Wing, something necessary for successful governance.
In tandem with Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and GOP majorities in both Congressional chambers. Pence would sign into law a healthcare bill that takes away coverage from 23 million low income Americans, steep tax cuts for the wealthy, the defunding of Planned Parenthood, a rollback of most environmental regulations and draconian cuts to social programs. He would continue to undermine both the power and integrity of our public schools through school choice initiatives. He would stack the judiciary with paleoconservatives and nominate a right-wing ideologue to the Supreme Court, should a vacancy arise. Congressional Republicans would be whipped into shape and subsequently pass the backlog of conservative policy that sits stagnant in various committees, and quickly. One of these days, the Democrats could figure out the basics to winning an election and then all bets are off.
Granted, Pence would (probably) abandon Trump’s Muslim ban and the Mexican border wall while toning down the white nationalist rhetoric. But that would only be a consolation prize for all of the reasonably-minded folks out there who just want their civil liberties, a decent public education system and an equitable tax code.
Maybe Mike Pence is guilty and goes down with Trump. As unlikely as that is, if it were to happen, the end result would be the same. The presidency would then go on to Speaker Paul Ryan, then to Senator Orrin Hatch and then to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. In other words, there are no Democrats in the current presidential line of succession, only loyal Republicans. Thanks to a combination of partisan gerrymandering and an unfriendly 2018 Senate map that will be remarkably tough for incumbent Democrats, the likliness of wrangling either or both congressional chambers from the GOP is slim. Let’s not assume things will be that much better off under Democratic rule either. Even if Congress is taken by the Democrats, a Republican will occupy the White House until at least January 2021 and our beleaguered republic will have to endure several more years of Obama-era like partisan gridlock.
It’s unfortunate and disappointing that we are stuck with such a mediocre president and an equally bad, if not worse, Congress that is stocked full of vindictive old white men. However, bad leadership is grounds for a competitive election, not impeachment. A Trump impeachment may feel good in the short term, but it won’t actually be good. Maybe it would be if there was a mild-mannered, centrist GOP waiting in the wings for an opportunity to put the acrimonious partisanship that defines us to bed. But that party died alongside the Nixon Administration and now we're stuck with a bunch of zealots who still think it’s 1955.
Ask yourself which would you prefer; a stunningly ineffective administration under Donald Trump that keeps on proposing crazy policies that would harm millions of people or a stunningly effective administration under Mike Pence that can turn those crazy policies into law? Sure, impeaching Donald Trump will give internet activists something to chortle about for a few months, but at what cost? As the old saying goes; be careful what you wish for because you might get it.