The US government has made it clear that it does not rule out banning the import of Venezuelan oil. But another thing is to do it. As Russ Dallen of the Caracas Capital Fund says, "I think there will be an oil embargo. But that is something that, ultimately, only one person knows: Donald J. Trump. And nobody knows what Trump thinks. Probably, even Trump himself does not know "
The note indicates that for now there is no replacement for Venezuelan production, although it has fallen and continues to fall. In July, Venezuela pumped just over 1.9 million barrels of crude daily, according to OPEC data, which means a third less (about 900,000 barrels) than the 2001 figure. "Even so, Venezuelan oil plays an important role in the world market. If those 1.9 million barrels disappeared, the price of the barrel could rise about 20%, to about 60 dollars a barrel, according to industry sources. That would imply an increase in the price of gasoline in the US of about 10 or 15 cents a gallon (3.5 liters), just at a time when fuel demand in that country is triggered by holidays "