The American Left is in shambles. Many on the Left believe that blowback against Trump’s “craziness” makes retaking the Congress a cinch later this fall and the Presidency in 2020, but they actually have a very steep hill to climb.
Why?
For one, the Left controls the fewer state legislatures and governorships than at anytime since the Civil War. That may not seem like a big deal until you remember that he who controls the state legislatures controls the gerrymandering. Extreme Republican gerrymandering is going to give the GOP a huge innate advantage this fall and in the next Presidential election. (Before anyone starts accusing the GOP of being dishonest, it’s just doing what the Dems have done with equal vigor in the past.)
Plus, today’s Supreme Court decision regarding union dues is going to make it impossible for the Dems to continue forcing unwilling Americans to fund Democrat election campaigns. Until today’s decision, states could force even non-union members to pay union dues, a significant portion of which was then contributed by the unions to election campaigns (almost always Dem ones) . Today’s decision outlawing this practice will deprive the Left of one of its largest sources of campaign funding, potentially putting it at a spending disadvantage in the Fall’s mid-term elections and the next Presidential election.
And now, Trump gets to appoint a second Supreme Court Justice, potentially cementing a conservative majority on the Court for the next couple of decades. That conservative court may be open to reasonable attempts by the states to verify the citizenship and eligibility of voters, something that generally disadvantages the Dems.
Finally, if Trump gets his way (and he probably will), then the next national census will include a question asking whether or not the responder is in the country illegally. The purpose of this question is ostensibly to gain a more accurate estimate of the number of illegals in the country (a reasonable goal). But many suspect that it will have the (intended?) effect of suppressing responses from illegals.
If so, then illegals won’t be included in the count. Why is this significant? Because the count determines how House of Representatives seats are apportioned among the states. If illegals are not counted in the census, then more House seats might be allocated to Republican leaning states, making it easier for Republicans to retain control of the House for the next decade.
The Left does had one advantage in the mid-terms, however. More Republican-held seats than Democrat-held ones are up for grabs. Whether that will be sufficient to overcome the GOP’s advantages discussed above remains to be seen. My guess? If the economy keep roaring, unemployment stays near record lows, the trade deficit continues improving, and massive amounts of overseas capital continues to be repatriated to the US mainland, then the Dems don’t have a chance of overcoming these advantages. If not, then they have at least a fighting chance.