Stuck between a rock and a hard place seems to be where we find ourselves lately when trying to figure out “whats the best way to deal with North Korea?”. Well with threat of war looming closer and closer we need to examine our options and figure out the best course of action. The option of attacking North Korea seems to be the most appealing in recent times on popular media outlets. “Get it over with and end this conflict once and for all!”, “The longer we wait the more dangerous they become! They’ll soon be able to nuke the US” are just some of the things you might hear if your bold enough to scroll through the comment sections on any media outlets.
Let me preface this with saying that under no circumstances would North Korea launch a “first strike”, it has no reason to as there is nothing to be gained from fighting a preemptive war. Unless they try to strike Japan or South Korea they would be gambling with the aim on a large coastal city. What do i mean by this? Try throwing a empty bottle in a trash can at a short distance, its more than likely you'd be able to fairly easily. But move the trash can about 20 or 30 feet away and throw with your non dominant hand. Sure you could hit the trash can if your lucky but more than likely you'd miss your mark.
And what have you achieved militarily? The death and destruction of a few million Americans in one maybe two cities if you launch every available missile and get lucky.In a place that you cant capture, use as a landing point for an invasion, and you would cripple only a very tiny portion of their country. As well as the fact that this would essentially rally and unite your enemy pledging to not stop until not only you are erased from the map but anyone that supports you. Your only allies China would not dare support your country in any way, not supplies, manpower or join into the fight. They would have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
But say you were to just have some nukes and talk a big game about “oh I might attack you if i wanted to”. You'd deter any invasion or military action against you, because suddenly both sides are looking at major casualties. So now your enemies will just let you be, and you can do as you please without a threat. But more importantly if you Kim Jong Un you’re safe, and your dynasty will live on.
Now lets say you weren't convinced and you still believe that they will fire nukes, invade , throw everything and the kitchen sink at you. Fine, then lets look at the combined efforts of the three main players in the war. The United States, Japan, and South Korea would be more than enough to quell the North Korean military in a very short amount of time, but not fast enough to prevent them from firing upon the major cities in both South Korea and Japan. It is estimated that a total of over 6 million casualties would result from the a North Korean nuclear strike, 3 million in South Korea and 3 million in Japan respectively. This is not including the casualties that would result from a subsequent war.
But say we as a society decide that the risk is worth the reward, the 6 million casualties are worth it and both Japan and Korea approve of the plan and we move forward. Would we really win? Well that depends on your definition of victory. If we look at simple seek and destroy boots on the ground the United States alone can fight a war with the North Koreans several times over. The United States spends over 64 times more money on their military, has at a bare minimum double the available man power, 12 times the amount of Helicopters & Combat Aircraft, a vastly outmatch navy not in terms of available naval craft but rather in firepower, and the resources necessary to continue a fight indefinitely.
This does not account for the fact that North Korean military and communicatory technology is vastly outdate still being carried over from the 1950’s, the manpower, supplies and aid that would be granted by South Korea, Japan or any of our Allies. Im also glossing over the fact that we could use nuclear missiles and destroy the country in entirety but this would result in basically one of the largest genocides of a people, and radiation/fallout on neighboring China which would rope them into a war or at the very least poor relations and essentially a second cold war.
Militarily we would be successful however causing a significant amount of casualties on both sides, destruction of the Korean peninsulas infrastructure as well as major cities in Japan, as well as a high likelihood of unrest and rebellion even after a peace treaty is signed. A rough integration of the North Koreans who are mainly unskilled in South Korea’s service economy(which is already highly competitive to begin with). Consider the integration of east and west Germany, it was done over 28 years ago under less strenuous circumstances and the country is still facing hardship, prejudice and industrial strain associated with it after being separated for 50 years. The reunification of Korea now under present conditions is already seen as incredibly strenuous, but after a bloody war and destruction of most of the North and partially the South would make it practically impossible and may result in another war further down the line ending up at this very situation.
Ultimately the military option of either invading or nuking the country is unviable and would be one of the most unsavory and destructive options of any on the board. What are we left to do? This is the eternal question every post division president has had to deal with and one that is unlikely to be resolved any time soon and certainly unlikely to be achieved through this option.
Credit to Jon woo at Reuters for the photo.