After a legal battle ongoing since the start of the year (and some might say, during Trump’s campaign), he has succeeded at last in completing one of the hallmarks of his campaign, for better or worse... for now at least.
In the midst of all the anger (by most) and triumph (by few), its worth taking a look back at the basics of the matter, to make sure they are well systematized. Only then can the individual decide what path to take. Lets start with the simplest starting point. What does this ban consist of?
What is it?
The origins of the ban come from the Obama administration, not the Trump one. The seven countries the ban targets (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) were pointed out by the Obama administration as the major sources of muslim terrorist immigrants. As such, Trump decided that travel from these countries had to be severely restricted, in order to minimize the chances of a terrorist slipping through border control.
“Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.” Words uttered after a terrorist attack had claimed innocent victims in the wake of the Paris attack.
The controversy was immediate. People compared Trump to a Hitler-esque figure, many called for his stepdown of the race (we all know how that went). Breitbart praised every cell in Trump’s body (metaphorical). Trying to keep a level head, let’s examine the raw data.
The travel ban bars any entry from people from the seven Muslim majority countries mentioned before (six now, but that’ll come later). The basis, as mentioned, is that it will keep terrorists from entering the US from these countries.
Trump has defended that this isn’t a Muslim ban as such: “This is not about religion - this is about terror and keeping our country safe. There are over 40 different countries worldwide that are majority Muslim that are not affected by this order."
Will it work?
Hard to say. But the evidence suggests “no”.
Most of the terrorist attacks on US soil were perpetrated by people who had been living in the US for quite a while. A while enough that had this travel ban been implemented since 9/11, none of the attacks since would have been prevented.
It’s hard to make speculation on areas where you cannot quantify, such as how a man becomes radicalized, but this appears to be the main cause of terrorist attacks – a progressive radicalization of the most conservative individuals of the total Muslim population.
But in many cases, such a radicalization was already known by the time the events occur, with the culprits being reported to the police by even their own Muslim neighbours and acquaintances at local mosques. As such, a better policy to curb terrorism might be to interrogate these suspicious elements in a law-abidding, non-provoking fashion, to maintain a good image and reputation among the Muslim population, not letting them feel singled out for the actions of unsavory elements.
On the other side of the fence, the following graphs paint a stark picture of the Muslim population entering the US.
These studies, mostly run by Pew researchers (attesting to their credibility) point out fundamental culture differences between the immigrant population and the US population. Moreover, the current Muslim influx is predicted to lead to a greater population heterogeneity, which is historically known to cause instability.
Regardless, it’s worth questioning whether or not the Muslim population could be integrated in a way that would naturally filter out the less savory elements of this population through customs and border control.
What’s happened so far?
The travel ban’s history, from legal inception, has been bumpy.
Put into place in Jan 27, as an executive order from Trump himself, it put a halt to the US refugee program, and barred Syrian refugees indefinitely, in addition to the effects mentioned previously.
In Jan 28, difficulties immediately showed. Judges blocked the order and prevented deportation to those with a visa.
Throughout the next week, numerous difficulties came up, culminating with the order being blocked nationwide by a Seattle judged, who Trump immediately bashed on Twitter.
The technicalities would bore you, so suffice to say, for the next months, the travel ban got increasingly suspended, with appeal after appeal to reinstate it failing.
Just two days ago, it got approved (kinda) and will go into effect tomorrow. But is that the end of the matter? Obviously not.
What will happen?
The travel ban that got approved was not the one Trump envisioned. It will bar immigrants from only 6 countries on the list, and only if they have no relationship with a person or entity in the US, meaning, people in these countries but born in the US should safely be able to return. Refugees should also be able to come, if they fulfill these conditions.
There are perspectives worth considering for the future though. The diplomatic strain of this measure would be great upon foreign opinion of the US. Pew data shows that it’s been unsteady over the last few years. However, considering the controversy generated during the campaign, and how fast it was suspended within US, it’s easy to estimate that diplomatic relations will worsen because of this ban.
In addition, civic tensions within the US might be predicted to rise. A flagship word among those who oppose this ban is “racism”. While this ban is indeed not quite a “Muslim” ban as Trump said, the overall population will not accept such rationalization, and will continue to label this as a “racist” policy.
For all of these drawbacks however, the diminishing onflux of Muslims would, by pure law of probabilities, stop some potential terrorists from entering.
Only time can truly tell if this measure would work, but time is something it will likely not have, as Democratic opposition to this measure rises once again.
What side should I be on?
The one you choose. This is a boiled down version of the events transpiring lately. You should seek out more info, from the starting points I’ve mentioned, in the rare event you haven’t already. There are more than 2 sides to this issue, with many other variants I did not cover.
Sound off in the comments below. And by all means, investigate this situation thoroughly. It will likely dominate debates throughout the rest of Trump’s presidency. By being informed, you can be prepared to take a part and make your voice heard in what comes next.
