My initial reaction to the rush by conspiracy theorists to blame the Charlie Kirk assassination on Israel, despite any discernible evidence, was that they are insane, blinded by their bias. Don’t get me wrong—I am not a fan of the Israeli government either, so I understand their suspicion, but there's got to be some evidence before making such a claim. We have since identified and apprehended the shooter: Tyler Robinson, a radicalized anti-fascist leftist with a trans lover. It seems most likely that was the motive. The shooter was brainwashed to believe Kirk was a “hateful bigoted fascist,” so he wanted to be the “hero” that killed him.
For those who insist there must be more to the story, some deeper motive... Not necessarily. Just look at the reaction from hundreds of thousands of leftists openly celebrating the murder—or at least making excuses for it. These people are deranged bloodthirsty lunatics, and Tyler Robinson was evidently one of them. He was also a young white male, who have dire job prospects in the country at this time. He likely felt no financial hope for the future, saw the admiration Luigi Mangione is receiving by leftists online and thought, if i kill an evil fascist, they'll idolize me too.
It really can be that simple.
Then again...
If there was a deeper conspiracy, it could have gone down the same way as Crooks/Trump (if there was a deeper conspiracy to that as well). There could have been "intelligence agents" (from Israel, the US, or other, acting rogue or with state approval) who lurk on private anonymous Discord servers, and they pose as just another Gen-Z gamer like everyone else. The undercover agents egg the others on, as they get more and more radical in their politics and violent in their rhetoric. The agents target suggestive individuals and provide info to help them plan specific attacks that are beneficial to their agenda. They manipulate the kids using professional-grade persuasion and neural linguistic programming to get them to do what they want. The kids don't even realize they are being manipulated, because they think they’re just chatting with the boyz, not realizing one is an undercover agent.
This could have happened with Crooks/Trump and Robinson/Kirk. I do not know the intricacies of Discord or if it is possible to access past chats and trace the identities of the other users. But at least Robinson is alive (for now) to possibly help find any accomplices and/or instigators involved, if any existed. He may try to protect his friends from being implicated, but not if one of his Discord buddies was an undercover agent. In this scenario, the intel agents would play no direct role in the assassination, so they cannot be blamed. Yet the attacks would not have happened without their involvement.
With Crooks/Trump, the "state" could have been our own, some leftist contingent within the US deep state. If such a group exists, it is possible they were also behind the Charlie Kirk assassination. But in Kirk’s case, as the initial anti-Zionist conspiracy theorists suggested, there is more likelihood that the state involved was Israel.
The motivation for Israel to kill Kirk is twofold:
Far-left Antifa terrorists are going to be blamed (and rightfully so) for Kirk’s assassination. This would benefit Israel because much of the left is anti-Zionist and pro-Palestine. An Antifa leftist killing Charlie Kirk would garner wide public support for the USG to crack down hard on Antifa and far-left radicals, which would severely hurt the left-wing anti-Zionist movement. The hope (for Israel) is that the center-left would no longer want to be associated with the far-left who committed and/or condoned political violence. To prove they are not insane far-leftists, they would abandon the anti-Zionist movement and be more pro-Israel like the “sane centrists”—at least Israel would want you to believe all sane centrists support Israel.
Charlie Kirk had been a longtime supporter of Israel, but by many indications, he was beginning to question some of their actions in Gaza and their associations with Jeffrey Epstein. Losing Kirk's (and Turning Point USA's support) would have been catastrophic for Israel. There is already an anti-Zionist contingent on the far-right, which is growing larger with young right-wingers by the day, but for a mainstream popular center-right figure like Charlie Kirk to shift to anti-Zionism would leave Israel with very little remaining supporters in the US, save for Fox News-watching Boomers (whose days are numbered). Kirk was an especially key political figure because of his appeal and popularity with both Zoomers and Boomers. Kirk was shifting his stance on Israel because most Zoomer right-wingers already have, and he risked losing that audience if he did not. Plus he was an honest intelligent Christian who was able to see the truth of the evil things Israel was doing. Kirk could have red-pilled the Boomer Evangelical Christian normies on Israel, which would have evaporated their last remaining contingent of supporters—except for those who are literally on Epstein’s client list (which unfortunately is still enough to maintain extraordinary power).
Israel accurately views US support as essential to their survival as a nation. Therefore, in their minds, it is justified to take extreme measures to ensure the continued support of the US government. This could include bribes, sexual blackmail operations, and even up to and including the assassination of influential American figures who cannot be coerced via bribery or blackmail into supporting Israel. Charlie Kirk was a straight-edge Christian, so he could not be blackmailed, and despite previous donations to his organization, he reportedly turned down Netanyahu’s latest attempt at bribery. So if Israel viewed Kirk as a sufficiently powerful and influential figure in American politics (and many believed he was a future presidential candidate), that would leave them only the third option…
But the problem with this conspiracy theory is that killing Kirk won't even help Israel if that was their plan.
The center-left may indeed distance themselves from the far-left, which would be good for us all, but I don't think that will affect their views on Israel/Gaza, only trans and Antifa. If it was Israel, you’d think they would have chosen an assassin who was more explicitly pro-Palestine, to make that the central issue rather than trans.
Kirk's death may temporarily prevent some conservative fans of TPUSA from turning anti-Zionist, but it's like putting a band-aid on a gunshot wound at this point (no pun intended). The majority of young right-wingers think the US should at least be neutral on Israel/Gaza, if not are outright anti-Israel.
There is really no tactical reason for Israel to kill Kirk. If they did, it was likely more mafia-like, killing a former business partner who “betrayed the family.” That is theoretically possible, but it is a very high risk for a very low payoff.
The other conspiracy floating around is that Robinson was a fed (FBI or CIA). This makes even less sense. He is going to get the death penalty, if not life in prison. What kind of fed signs up for that job? Nobody is that much of a true believer in any cause.
There is some smoke around the Israeli conspiracy, but that doesn’t mean there is fire. There would need to be much more hard evidence than we currently have. It seems awfully fast for Israel to have planned such an assassination and been able to groom Robinson so quickly, when Kirk had only just recently begun to publicly shift his tune about Israel. Unless Kirk had been privately critical of Israel for much longer, and Israel had been spying on him (as they are wont to do) so they knew this. They had been planning countermeasures in conjunction, so when Kirk started to publicly question Israel, they "pulled the trigger" by activating Robinson before Kirk went any further and convinced all of TPUSA’s followers to be anti-Zionist. (There could be thousands of more assets like Robinson and Crooks around the country currently being groomed by intelligence agents “just in case” they are ever needed for an operation.)
To reiterate, I am not saying I believe the above scenario is what happened, but it is at least a conspiracy theory that makes some sense. But again, there would need to be much more evidence to confirm it. Though getting such evidence is extremely unlikely, considering that it's been over a year since the Trump shooting and we haven't found out anything more about Crooks and his online activity. So I doubt we'll ever be learning about any of the other "anons" in Robinson's Discord chats.
If Israel (or any state actors) were behind the Kirk assassination, they likely would have "suicided" the shooter somehow. It seems odd that they'd have let Robinson roam free in hiding for two days--when they would have known who and where he was and could have killed him in such a way to make it look like a suicide. The fact they didn't do this reduces the odds that any state actors were working with Robinson. Though there could have been some fluke reason that they weren't able to kill him without witnesses. So if Robinson somehow "kills himself" like Epstein before facing public questioning, then that would point to Israel being behind the assassination. (Or if some "Jack Ruby" type stooge murders him "in revenge for MAGA".)
But for now, the simpler explanation makes the most sense. This kid, like so many other people in the country, had his mind warped by the left-wing media and gay race communists on the internet to think a mainstream conservative Christian is a dangerous fascist threat that needs to be taken out. That sentiment is 100% real. Millions of people really think that way—just look at the comments online. So regardless of whether there was any deeper conspiracy, it is clear that Antifa needs to be crushed.