Final polling average before the Virginia election tomorrow. Really interesting race. You could make a good case for both at this point, which really does make for a toss-up.
Youngkin: polls have consistently shown him gaining since September, so it does appear to be a real trend change. Biden's approval rating in Virginia is bad. 2020 polling underestimated Republicans.
McAuliffe: polls could be oversampling Youngkin voters (Virginia's approval rating for Biden is way worse than his national approval ratings would imply for a D+10 state). There could be some poll herding. He has more polls above 50% than Youngkin. Virginia is D+10 and Republicans have struggled in the state for the last decade. 2017 polling underestimated Democrats last gubernatorial election.
Most recent polling is from Republican-leaning pollsters, but even the nonpartisan polling from recent weeks is showing a close race.
I think I'd lean McAuliffe, but a Youngkin win is definitely possible.
I don't think the Virginia off-year election has been very predictive of the Midterms IIRC, but certainly the Dems are in a bad situation with Biden's approval regardless of Virginia, and the Midterm map is hard for them. Holding the House is a legitimate concern.
I don't think we should read too much into it either way though. A close race is a close race. We know Biden's approval rating is trending south. In any case I don't think the Dems should feel particularly different.
I think the Midterms will be more affected by Trump though than anything with this race. By then Trump's 2024 interest will be clear. Youngkin has tried his darnedest to distance himself from Trump and probably has been successful since Trump isn't a candidate yet. But that won't be possible for the Midterm races.