Tomorrow the US presidential election will take place. Below some thoughts on that:
Within the last 20 years politics (not only in the US) have changed a lot, mainly driven by the emergence of social media.
More generally speaking, technology drives politics and society.
A historical analogy (historical analogies are always wrong/vague, but may be useful):
Around 100 BC the Roman Republic was under pressure by the invading Cimbri and Teutones. To fight them, the statesman Gaius Marius reformed the military (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marian_reforms) by
- allowing the capite censi (the landless masses) to join the military. Before, the poor citizens couldn't afford their own weapons. Marius supplied them with arms and offered the disenfranchised masses permanent employment (paid as professional soldiers) and the opportunity to gain spoils on campaign. Having little hope of gaining status by other means, the masses joined Marius' army.
- creating a standing army with an enlistment term of 16 years (before, after a war combatants continued with their ordinary profession, mostly farming)
- offering retirement benefits in the form of land grants. Members of the landless poor (after having completed their term of service) were given a pension by their General and a plot of land in the conquered region on which to retire.
--> These measures professionalized the Roman army and made the Legion the most-efficient and deadly army of their time. The Germanic invaders were destroyed in 101 BC and Rome would conquer large regions (Asia Minor, Syria, Egypt, Gaul) in the decades to come.
The unintended consequences of the new technology ("invented" by Marius):
- While combatants before these reforms were united in their allegiance to the Roman Republic, the new legionaries (mostly landless masses) felt allegiance to their General who paid them (with land and coin). Thus, power shifted from the senatorial class (politicians) to the commanders in the field (military). This facilitated the later civil wars between Marius and Sulla as well as between Julius Caesar and Gnaeus Pompey. The latter resulted in the end of the Roman Republic and the rise of the Imperium Romanum.
So, where is the analogy?
Both the Marian reforms and social media are technologies with huge implications for society.
In 2016 Donald Trump was able to bypass mass media and use social media (Twitter, Facebook) to connect with his potential electorate. His anti-establishment rhetoric ("lock her up", "drain the swamp") resonated well with many disadvantaged people ("deplorables").
In the last weeks I heard rumors about an imminent civil war in the US and read headlines like "What happens if President Trump doesn't accept the election results?".
So, could Trump gather his legions (and/or followers), march (figuratively) onto Washington D.C. and stay in power, even if he loses the election? I think this scenario is very, very unlikely because
- he probably would not dare to try that
- the Supreme Court, the House of Representatives, the Military, the Police, the States, and probably even the Republicans would not accept such a coup détat.
I think the USA has a very resilient political system currently not in danger of a coup, but probably, citizens of the Roman Republic in 49 (after hundreds of years as a Republic) thought that, too.
Social media is leveling the playing field, eroding the monopoly of political parties for political messaging. This empowers already famous/charismatic people who can reach 150 million US voters via social media and participate in the presidential race. On the one hand that can be frightening because of the loss of the political structure many people took for granted. On the other hand this democratization of media gives everybody the possibility to express their opinion, to communicate directly with decision-makers and to take part more actively in the political process. I expect this technological paradigm shift to have huge consequences in the years to come.
I think the US is heading towards big economic, social and political problems, but in the long term (especially compared to the rest of the world) I expect the US to come out of these turbulences stronger than before. I hope it won't be as an Empire, though.
Further highly recommended reading/watching:
https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on
https://nav.al/american-spring
