Sergey Buntovsky, writer, historian, Donetsk
Strange things are happening in the Ukrainian Donbass-front: DNR assigns to the rear of his artillery and armored vehicles, fulfilling and even exceeding the Minsk agreement, and in response, the Ukrainian army intensifies shelling of civilian neighborhoods. In mid-July it went to the center of Donetsk, and now here comes the real shot Gorlovka.
Exactly the same position and in the information space: representatives from DNR pose as edakogo collective Leopold, while their opponents continue to excite the electorate bellicose rhetoric.
For Ukraine in public, there are calls for the establishment of concentration camps for the enemies of the nation and discussed the Croatian experience in the destruction of Serb enclaves. Even the modest promises, which gave the Ukrainian government in Minsk, has not only not satisfied, but defiantly crossed out. In addition to announcing the creation of the APU next Foreign Legion, this time not staffed by Georgians and Muslims. So Kiev is clearly set to aggravate the situation.
Ukrainian power clans interested in the continuation of hostilities. Firstly, because they are only executors of the will of Western curators who in turn benefit from war near the Russian border.
Secondly, war is banal beneficial Ukrainian officials, politicians and security officials, as has long been turned into a profitable business.
Third, aggravation in the Donbass allows you to channel the activity of both ordinary Ukrainians and military structures. After all, if all kinds of dogs, and Aidar involved in active operations in the Donbass, it can not be in full force to participate in the redistribution of property in Ukraine. So if Kiev does not want to hear shooting in Mukachevo, it should send everyone to shoot at Donetsk, where some of them remain permanently.
Fourth, all the failures of the authorities and the deterioration of living in Ukraine is easily charged to the machinations of internal and external enemies.
So I would not expect to see in the near future subject to any peace agreements. True, we should not expect a large and war, to lead the army that Kiev is still simply not capable. So it will remain the world or on the verge of war with the ongoing shelling of cities Donbass, or will go sluggish war, the number of dead little distinguishable from the present truce.
As for the latest shelling of Gorlovka, the Ukrainian security forces continue to systematically implement a program to heighten the hysteria, panic and fear among the civilian population. Gorlovka - the most convenient target for the implementation of these plans because of its location and because of its much weaker garrison Donetsk. Accordingly, and kill Gorlovka safer than punitive and enjoy.
As a result of these terrorist attacks openly Gorlovka or will be partially destroyed and its inhabitants leave the city, or the defenders will not stand and will be forced to go on the offensive, leading to high losses and will be used for Donetsk Kiev and Moscow charges of aggression.
In addition, recently there was a mobilization of another cannon fodder in the ranks of the APU. Arranging shot Donbass towns Ukrainian command thus binds recruits blood, making them complicit in the crime. Now, for most of them will not be going back.