After 54 holes of golf have been played in mostly favourable conditions over the past three days on Ireland's West coast in Lahinch, Co. Clare my pre tournament pick Rafa Cabrera Bello find himself between a Rock and a hard place.
Even though he shot the lights out with a magnificent round of 63, equaling Padraic Harrington's course record haul on Thursday's opening day, he still did not find himself on top of the leaderboard going into the fourth a final round on Sunday. Instead he is in a tie for second with England's Eddie Pepperell. Indeed the joint course record no longer stood, as Robert Rock absolutely ripped up the Links course. Some nice pin positions from the seventh hole onwards and a complete lack of wind meant that Lahinch let its guard down and many players took advantage with low rounds, but none moreso than Rock, who played with a smile on his face as birdie after birdie dropped in. He even had an eagle putt on the eighteenth green which would have landed him on that magical figure of 59, which only Oliver Fisher has ever managed on the European tour. He narrowly missed the putt, but it must still have felt good signing for a 60, which catapulted himself to the summit of the leader-board going into the final round.
My Pick
I'm still happy with my punt on Rafa Cabrera Bello at 28/1 however, especially as I took him each way with 8 places paying out. He is now the favorite to win the tournament at 3/1 and I could cash out now for a profit, but where would the fun be in that. He has enough experience and skill to not completely implode, so I am confident that the worst he will do is finish in the top 8. Of course you never know with golf, so I am willing to take the risk. Indeed, I would say he has more chance of winning the competition, than he has of finishing outside the top 8.
He is swinging with ease and after signing for rounds of 68, 67 and 63 so far, if he can keep that average going and get around in 66 today, I think that total of -16 will win him the juicy cheque of just over €1 million.
The Dangers
Can Robert Rock back up his sizzling round of 60 to get back in the winners circle? For me the short answer is no, he cannot. I can see a fairly average round from him today, as we often see the day after someone shoots the lights out. Think Padraic Harrington on Friday morning after his 63 the day before - he struggled to a terrible 73, which pretty much knocked him out of contention altogether. I think the same fate may await Rock today.
For me the main danger comes from Eddie Pepperell, whose beautiful ball striking and new found confidence make him a worthy adversary for anyone. To get an idea of Pepperell's ball striking, have a look at this link showing himself and New Zealand's Ryan Fox. I won't even describe it, just go have a look - poetry in motion on the golf course.
Can Jon Rahm mount a challenge from 5 shots back? He certainly can, but will he? I don't think so to be honest. He will have to take things on and play very agressive and when anybody does that, the probability of the wheels coming off goes up, and that may well be the case here - I see birdies on his card, but I also see bogeys, and probably too much black to offset the red. He's need a 63 and I just don't see it.
Andy Sullivan and Bernd Wiesberger are two guys I would be wary of however - I can see a surge from one or both of these guys and they will likely get close to parity with the leader at some stage. We'll see what they are made of then and whether they can maintain the challenge.
Well poised
So, it is all poised very nicely going into the final round and it is all very much to play for. I'm going to back myself and say that Rafa just scrapes it, possibly even a playoff required for him to triumph.
I am also over on Scorum for who is live over there - https://scorum.com/en-us/golf/@ablaze/irish-open-third-round-update