We were supposed to be in the midst of a recession by now, with the expectation that it would go global. However, there are currently no signs of any recession. In my opinion, the S&P is performing well, inflation has decreased slightly, and rate cuts are rumored/announced for next spring. Despite ongoing wars, societal, and political tensions, things seem to be holding up.
People continue to spend money, Bitcoin is on the rise, and there's no indication of any contraction. Some analysts argue that the current positive trends for the S&P and Bitcoin are merely a bear market rally, while others believe the markets are gearing up for the next blow-off top, followed by a significant recession and deflation. Yes, you read that right—deflation.
I refrain from making definitive statements; instead, I follow individuals I consider smarter than myself, navigating the crypto waters and managing my finances to the best of my ability. However, I take full responsibility for any decisions I make regarding my crypto portfolio and personal finances.
While I don't engage in extensive trading, I occasionally dabble in futures. A few weeks ago, I opened a long position on DOGE, sensing there was substantial upside potential. I placed a 5X long on DOGE with an entry point at $0.07, investing $180. At present, I am in a winning position, with unrealized profits at $90.
Although I could easily close the trade and secure a decent profit, I resist the urge. Instead, I prefer to ride the wave higher, foregoing immediate gains for the potential of a more significant reward.
In the realm of crypto, two highly unproductive moves can be made. The first is selling too soon, succumbing to the fear stemming from the recent bear market. The second is selling too late and missing out on lucrative profits in a thriving crypto market.
The sentiment fueling the first mistake arises from the lingering impact of the harsh bear market and the belief that the future won't mirror the past. It's tempting to heed analysts who predict the absence of a full-blown bull market due to factors like a "looming recession" and ongoing conflicts. However, historical evidence suggests otherwise, as we've experienced a robust bull market even amid a pandemic year with widespread shutdowns.
I emphasize that we have yet to witness a true full-blown bull run in crypto, and it is imminent. Until then, many will move their funds out of crypto for perceived safety, missing out on the current exponential gains. This tendency is particularly prevalent among those who suffered significant losses during the bear market.
While cashing out some gains might be tempting, I opt to endure a bit longer for a larger slice of the pie. At the moment, I am not closing my DOGE long, nor am I seeking to profit from my investments. Having been financially strained for too long, I am determined to hold out for a more substantial payoff.
What about you? Will you indulge in the marshmallow in front of you, or will you patiently await the feast?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian