There's been speculation from months back that the tail end of 2024 would be the catalyst for one of the major bull runs we see. Bitcoin has been fairing well holding at $60,000 on average. This has held up rather well but there's been very little movement since. In fact it seems like all that's happening is ETFs are gobbling up more bitcoin and it most likely is coming from miners right now who are trying to make ends meet because of the halving event.

So there's a few things to look at.

The Halving

The halving took place on April 19th 2024 so it's been almost two months. Normally after the halving event the markets start to feel the liquidity pressure which starts in the supply and demand affect. Roughly 3 months after which we are closing in on is when prices start to move again as the mark gets used to the lower supply levels.

The Fed

There's been constant talk about the fed reducing rates for a long time now. However inflation is still there and actully having a higher fed rate right now benefits the USA dollar greatly. So there's a lot of things still telling me this isn't going to happen or if it does it's going to be a single minor 25 points.

The Fed meeting will be happening this week and it's expected now to be the general talking points of the rates staying the same and things are still looking rough. However with election season it's actully likely that at least one will happen before the elections. It's like when you look back to 2022 and the fed said they were not going to increase rates. Where that got us was record high inflation, a semi falling dollar power and high interest rates which are really starting to put some pressures on the economy.

Most people and predictions are putting a possible rate cut not until Sept. or October just before elections in early November. However the real prediction by some are that the fed cuts are going to start in about a month or two and then just hammer it out for the rest of the year mainly most likely because of you guessed it elections and trust me the democrats need all the help they can get.

The other factor is numbers we are starting to see out of the US economy are showing things starting to really slow down. Housing and small business being at the core which really is the heart beat of the USA economy.

It's expect if these rate cuts start that not only will bitcoin skyrocket but so will the stock market and most likely Ethereum now that those also have a spot ETF.

Also I found this site which is interesting that I might start pulling data from more often. Trueflation

If we start seeing these cuts in the next two months we most likely will see bitcoin worth at least $100,000.

What are you thoughts on the upcoming possible rate cuts and how they will play out for crypto and the stock market this year?