Despite the poor price performance of crypto assets throughout the first three quarters of 2025, there are still reasons to be optimistic for the remainder of Q4:
Powell signaled that the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) could come as early as tomorrow, after the Fed's meeting. This would increase liquidity in the banking system, and likely boost prices.
There is a greater than 99% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, but it's always possible that Powell could surprise us and drop them by 50 basis points, increasing the money supply.
More than $9 trillion of US national debt was slated to be rolled over this year at much higher rates. The 25bps cuts likely aren't enough to keep interest payments on national debt manageable, and more cuts will probably be required soon.
A variety of assets are already signalling that the money supply has been surging:
Gold has dipped below $3900 after surpassing $4300 about a week ago, finding support near $4000.
Bitcoin remains volatile despite the overall bullish trend this year, dropping from $115k to $112k today.
Privacy coins like Zcash, Zano, and PIVX are showing signs of life, waking up after their own extended bear markets.
- The first Solana ETF was just approved, and other currencies such as Litecoin are also expected to get their own soon. It could be argued that BTC and ETH have done well this year thanks to the approval of their ETFs almost two years ago.
Until next time...
Despite a lackluster first three quarters of 2025, there is still hope that Q4 could pleasantly surprise us - but only time will tell.
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