They say, any publicity is good publicity. As of yesterday, XRP's market cap is $27.9 billion, making it the 7th-largest cryptocurrency. Investors think the SEC's case against Ripple won't amount to anything and it show because the price of XRP is up 170% since the start of the year. If you did catch my pieces on the XRP drama, it can be summed up as the SEC Files $1.3 Billion Lawsuit against XRP Creator Ripple because they are alleging that Ripple held an unregistered securities sale.
Essentially, a security is an investment contract that signifies a stake in a financial venture with the expectation of future profits. The SEC regulates securities sales in the US. I think the allegations are misguided as this lawsuit was filed the day before SEC chair left office. The timing is odd considering XRP had been trading for eight years... From a technical perspective, XRP does have a currency value, but it has a utility and that utility distinguishes it which means it should not be viewed as a security. However, I'm not legal scholar. So in the wake of the allegations, several exchanges and trading platforms—among them Coinbase, Binance.US, Blockchain.com, Crypto.com, and eToro—suspended XRP trading.
I love the crypto ecosystem because usually, legal troubles are bad news for stock prices, but XRP and the Ripple payments platform is proving to be an exception. I think it's because of their aggressive push back against the SEC and their case has such solid grounds for dismissal. There is also a more crypto friendly SEC administration coming into office.
Gary Gensler is set to take over the helm of affairs in the SEC. Gensler seems to be more open-minded towards cryptocurrency following some pro bitcoin comments in the past. Ripples CEO Garlinghouse shared this optimism for the new administration.
“I’m hopeful with Gary Gensler and the new chair likely to be confirmed in a couple of weeks. There’s an opportunity to have a conversation with that new leadership as he brings his team in.”
I think the cards are falling in Ripple's favor so I expect the the case to be dismissed, but it's something I will be keeping a close watch on because it has the potential to move markets in either direction.
Price Prediction
I'm seeing an inverse head-and-shoulders which is a good reversal pattern, and a successful breakout would start of a new uptrend.
The peaks of these valleys are all connected at the neckline with a horizontal resistance level at $0.63. This setup’s target is approx. $1.09 which comes from measuring the head’s depth from the right shoulder and adding it to the breakout point at $0.63.If it fails to break out you will get some bearish action to the $0.50 levels.
If I could trade it I would trade the bullish setup, but I can't so I'll have to look for another trade.