A Sea of Red A deeply red week. However, I suspect very few prediction models would have posted a green result under these specific conditions. Only 4 matches ended with an "Over" result, which is exceptionally low for the Premier League standards. Also I did promise transparancy in both green and red weeks. So here it is.
The "Draw" Anomaly Things get even stranger when looking at the match outcomes: 7 Draws. Draws are notoriously the "Achilles' heel" of both AI models and human bettors. Models generally look for winners based on form and dominance; they rarely predict stalemates, especially scoreless ones.
Shock Results: Sunderland holding Man City to a 0-0 draw and Liverpool failing to score against Leeds (0-0) are statistical outliers (Black Swans) that destroy 1X2 and Over/Under accas alike.
🔍 Matchweek 19 Details
| Match | Score | 1X2 Pick | Res | O/U Pick | Res | CS Pick | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley v Newcastle | 1-3 | Away | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | 2-2 | Home | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Nott'm Forest v Everton | 0-2 | Home | ❌ | Under | ✅ | 1-0 | ❌ |
| West Ham v Brighton | 2-2 | Away | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Arsenal v Aston Villa | 4-1 | Home | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Man United v Wolves | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Crystal Palace v Fulham | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Liverpool v Leeds | 0-0 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 3-0 | ❌ |
| Brentford v Tottenham | 0-0 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Sunderland v Man City | 0-0 | Away | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 1-2 | ❌ |
📊 Model: Week 19 (1u Flat)
| Model | Hitrate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 20% | -6.98u | -69.8% |
| O/U | 50% | -1.74u | -17.4% |
| CS | 0% | N/A | N/A |
| TOT | -8.72u |
📈 History per Week
| Week | Games | 1X2% | 1X2 P/L | O/U% | O/U P/L | CS% | CS P/L | Total P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.96u | 50.0% | -1.06u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -2.02u |
| 14 | 10 | 40.0% | -2.91u | 70.0% | +2.52u | 10.0% | 0.00u | -0.39u |
| 15 | 10 | 50.0% | -1.23u | 40.0% | -3.59u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -4.82u |
| 16 | 10 | 70.0% | +3.53u | 50.0% | -1.40u | 0.0% | 0.00u | +2.13u |
| 17 | 10 | 70.0% | +4.94u | 50.0% | -1.90u | 50.0% | 0.00u | +3.04u |
| 18 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.93u | 60.0% | -0.15u | 30.0% | 0.00u | -1.08u |
| 19 | 10 | 20.0% | -6.98u | 50.0% | -1.74u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -8.72u |
| TOT | 70 | 50.0% | -4.54u | 52.9% | -7.32u | 12.9% | 0.00u | -11.86u |
Impact on Metrics
- Correct Score: Due to the chaos, not a single Correct Score was hit.
- 1X2 Model: The hit rate took a severe beating. With only 2 correct predictions, we hit an all-time low of 20% for the week. This significant dip has pulled the cumulative model performance down to a flat 50% after 70 games.
- O/U Model: Stalled at 50% this week, causing the overall hit rate to slide slightly to 52.9%
🎫 Ticket Overview (Week 19)
Financial Perspective Because of these low-probability outcomes, the tickets had virtually no chance of succeeding. However, it is vital to zoom out: despite this hit, the Total Bankroll remains positive at +€26.47. This is the nature of variance in sports betting—surviving the bad weeks to capitalize on the good ones (like Week 17).
Looking Ahead We take the loss, reset the stats, and move on. The beauty of the schedule is that a new matchday starts tomorrow.
❌ 1X2 Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool v Leeds | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Arsenal v Aston Villa | Home | Won | ✅ |
| West Ham v Brighton | Away | Lost | ❌ |
| Brentford v Tottenham | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Burnley v Newcastle | Away | Won | ✅ |
❌ O/U Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Liverpool v Leeds | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Brentford v Tottenham | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Man United v Wolves | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| West Ham v Brighton | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Arsenal v Aston Villa | Over | Won | ✅ |
❌ CS Ticket | Profit: €-1.10
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest v Everton | 1-0 | Lost | ❌ |
| Liverpool v Leeds | 3-0 | Lost | ❌ |
| Burnley v Newcastle | 1-2 | Lost | ❌ |
| West Ham v Brighton | 1-2 | Lost | ❌ |
💰 Financial Summary per Week
| Week | 1X2 P/L | O/U P/L | CS P/L | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 14 | -2.20€ | -1.18€ | -1.10€ | -4.48€ |
| 15 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 16 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 17 | -0.81€ | +2.28€ | +52.17€ | +53.64€ |
| 18 | -2.20€ | +2.61€ | -1.10€ | -0.69€ |
| 19 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| TOT | -14.01€ | -5.09€ | +45.57€ | +26.47€ |
💰 Total Weekly Net: €-5.50
Disclaimer: Educational experiment. 18+ Only.
Cheers,
Peter