We have reached the final round of the Champions League qualification. 12 teams still have a chance to knock open the door to the millions, euhm Champions League. Today 3 games will be played but only one keeps attracking me and that is Red Star vs Salzburg!
The Serbian champion of the past season against the Austrian Champion!
There is a lot at stake. Red Star never made it to the group stages of the Champions league, while the previous visit for the team from Austria was 24 years ago! So both teams are eager to qualify!
How did they get here?
Red Star
Red Star did start in the first Qualifying round against Spartaks. The away game was a scoreless draw and the home game was won with 2-0.
In the second qualifying round the opponent Suduva has nothing to worry Red Star. Resulting in a 3-0 home victory to seal the deal away from home with 0-2.
The third round was thougher. Against Trnava both legs did end up in a 1-1 draw, but Red Star scored qualified with an early goal during extra time!
RB Salzburg
Salzburg only had to play the third qualifying round, where they easily won at home with 3-0 against Shkendija and the away game was won with 0-1.
Current form
Both teams are leading their domestic competitions!
Red Start did play 4 games and won all 4 of them. Scored 10 goals and only got one against.
More or less the same story for Salzburg, but they only did score 9 goals and just like Red Star conceded only 1!
Interesting information
The game will be played behind closed doors. This could turn the home advantage into an advantage for the away team. It will be strange for the players of Red Star, to play in their massive stadium with a capacity of more than 51000 for only a few members of both teams and the press!
This will affect the home players more than the players from Salzburg!
Another interesting fact is that a great Steemiaan probably will play in this game (
My bets
Most people do think that this game has written under 2,5 goals all over it, but I do disagree. Both teams didn't had a real test yet. The start will be slow, but I do expect that Salzburg will take the lead forcing Red Star to search for the equalizer, which give Salzburg excellent chances to score on the counter attack. The odds for the Over 2.5 goals are around 2.31 on Nitrogensports.eu. This represents a probability of 43%. I do think that there is more than 50% on an over.
2 units on the over at odds of 2.31.
The other is a more risky bet, but I do think that Salzburg is the better team and that they will win. So I will be going for the Asian Handicap Salzburg -1 at odds of 3.35.
I know that the Asian lines are dropping which most of the time isn't an excellent idea to place the bet. But I will stick to my analysis!
| Date | Bet | Stake | Odds | Result | Bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 21, 2018 | Salzburg -1 | 1 | 3.35 | Pending | Unibet |
| August 21, 2018 | Over 2.5 | 2 | 2.31 | Pending | Nitrogensports.eu |
Monthly overview
| Month | Bets | Won | Lost | Push | Staked | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August, 2018 | 36 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 42 | 14.02 | 33.4% |
Detailed overview
| Date | Bet | Stake | Odds | Result | Bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 1, 2018 | Genk -1.5 | 1 | 1.772 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 3, 2018 | Over 2.5 | 1 | 1.825 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 3, 2018 | Standard -0.5 | 1 | 1.854 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 4, 2018 | Over 2.5 ANT vs KOR | 1 | 1.945 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 4, 2018 | Charleroi | 1 | 2.642 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 4, 2018 | Gent -1 | 1 | 2.4 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 5, 2018 | AND -1.5 | 1 | 2.331 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 5, 2018 | Genk -1.5 | 1 | 2.152 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 5, 2018 | Club Brugge -1.5 | 1 | 2.192 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 7, 2018 | Standard DNB | 2 | 2.796 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 8, 2018 | Celtic -1 | 1 | 2.241 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 8, 2018 | Over 2.5 POAK vs Spartak | 1 | 2.38 | Won | Unibet |
| August 9, 2018 | Gent ML | 2 | 2.366 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 9, 2018 | Over 2.5 POAK vs Spartak | 2 | 2.271 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 10, 2018 | Man United -1 | 1 | 1.927 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 10, 2018 | Club Brugge -2 | 1 | 2.311 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 11, 2018 | Tottenham -1 | 1 | 3.104 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 11, 2018 | Fulham | 1 | 2.575 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 11, 2018 | St Truiden -1 | 1 | 2.34 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 11, 2018 | Antwerp | 1 | 2.187 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 12, 2018 | Liverpool -2 | 1 | 2.133 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 12, 2018 | Burnley | 1 | 5.06 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 12, 2018 | Anderlecht -1 | 1 | 3 | Push | Unibet |
| August 16, 2018 | Genk -1 | 2 | 3 | Push | Unibet |
| August 16, 2018 | Gent -1 | 2 | 1.86 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 17, 2018 | Anderlecht -1 HT | 1 | 2.34 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 17, 2018 | Anderlecht -2 | 1 | 2.142 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 18, 2018 | Everton -1 | 1 | 2.777 | Push | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 18, 2018 | St Truiden Draw | 1 | 3.66 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 18, 2018 | Standard -1 | 1 | 2.509 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 18, 2018 | Chelsea | 1 | 1.85 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 18, 2018 | KV Oostende | 2 | 2.8 | Won | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 19, 2018 | Lukaku To Score | 1 | 2.63 | Won | Unibet |
| August 19, 2018 | Gent -1 | 1 | 2.32 | Push | Unibet |
| August 19, 2018 | Burnley | 1 | 2.456 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
| August 19, 2018 | Club Brugge | 1 | 2.356 | Lost | Nitrogensports.eu |
Good luck,
Peter
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