🏁 Market Master Analysis: Phase 1 Review
It is fantastic to see the 1X2 model find its footing in Week 16. Hitting 70% in a major league like the Premier League is indeed a massive achievement for a single gameweek—that is well beyond statistical noise.
The "Man Utd 4-4 Bournemouth" result is the definition of a "Black Swan" event. No statistical model based on sane historical data predicts an 8-goal thriller draw easily. It’s frustrating for the ticket, but as a data point, it’s an outlier you generally have to forgive the model for missing.
On the flip side, the Sunderland victory is the highlight. That is a "Model's Choice" pick—where the data sees something the general public (and bookmakers) might have underestimated.
Here is the deep-dive analysis on your total hitrates for the first 4-week block.
📊 1X2 Market Analysis (Phase 1)
Total Hitrate: 52.5% (21/40 games)
Performance:
In a 3-way market (Home/Draw/Away), the baseline for random chance is roughly 33%. Sustaining a 52.5% hitrate over 40 games is statistically respectable.
The Profit Discrepancy: Despite a >50% hitrate, the Total P/L is -1.57u. This indicates that while the model is picking winners more often than not, it has likely been leaning on "heavy favorites" with short odds (e.g., 1.40 - 1.60) in previous weeks. When those fail, they wipe out multiple small wins.
The Week 16 Shift: Week 16 was the turning point. The high hitrate combined with a solid +3.53u profit suggests the model finally identified value picks (like Sunderland or Away wins for Fulham/West Ham) rather than just "safe" picks.
📉 Over/Under Market Analysis (Phase 1)
Total Hitrate: 52.5% (21/40 games)
Performance:
In a 2-way market, 50% is essentially a coin flip. To be profitable (beating the bookmaker's margin/vig), you generally need a hitrate of roughly 52.4% to 54% depending on the odds.
The Leak: While the hitrate (52.5%) is technically identical to the 1X2 model, the P/L is significantly worse (-3.53u). This suggests the model is consistently losing "value" on the O/U lines. It is winning bets with low payouts and losing bets that might have had standard odds.
Conclusion: The O/U component currently lacks an "edge." It is reacting to market averages rather than predicting game flow.
🛠️ Strategic Outlook for Phase 2
The first 4 weeks (40 games) have provided a clear baseline.
1X2 Model: It is trending in the right direction. The 70% spike in Week 16 suggests the logic is sound, but it needs to maintain the courage to pick value underdogs (like Sunderland) to fix the overall negative P/L.
O/U Model: This needs the most work. It is currently "treading water."
Tickets: The accumulator strategy is currently the biggest drain on the bankroll (-€20.98 total net). The variance in the Premier League (like a 4-4 draw) makes hitting 6-fold accumulators incredibly difficult.
🔍 Matchweek 16 Details
| Match | Score | 1X2 Pick | Res | O/U Pick | Res | CS Pick | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Everton | 2-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Liverpool v Brighton | 2-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Burnley v Fulham | 2-3 | Away | ✅ | Under | ❌ | 0-1 | ❌ |
| Arsenal v Wolves | 2-1 | Home | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 2-0 | ❌ |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | 0-3 | Away | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Nott'm Forest v Tottenham | 3-0 | Draw | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 2-2 | ❌ |
| Sunderland v Newcastle | 1-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| West Ham v Aston Villa | 2-3 | Away | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Brentford v Leeds | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Man United v Bournemouth | 4-4 | Home | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
📊 Model: Week 16 (1u Flat)
| Model | Hitrate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 70% | +3.53u | +35.3% |
| O/U | 50% | -1.40u | -14.0% |
| CS | 0% | N/A | N/A |
| TOT | +2.13u |
📈 History per Week
| Week | Games | 1X2% | 1X2 P/L | O/U% | O/U P/L | CS% | CS P/L | Total P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.96u | 50.0% | -1.06u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -2.02u |
| 14 | 10 | 40.0% | -2.91u | 70.0% | +2.52u | 10.0% | 0.00u | -0.39u |
| 15 | 10 | 50.0% | -1.23u | 40.0% | -3.59u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -4.82u |
| 16 | 10 | 70.0% | +3.53u | 50.0% | -1.40u | 0.0% | 0.00u | +2.13u |
| TOT | 40 | 52.5% | -1.57u | 52.5% | -3.53u | 2.5% | 0.00u | -5.10u |
🎫 Ticket Overview (Week 16)
❌ 1X2 Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Everton | Home | Won | ✅ |
| Liverpool v Brighton | Home | Won | ✅ |
| Man United v Bournemouth | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Brentford v Leeds | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Nott'm Forest v Tottenham | Draw | Lost | ❌ |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | Away | Won | ✅ |
❌ O/U Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool v Brighton | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Man United v Bournemouth | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Burnley v Fulham | Under | Lost | ❌ |
| Brentford v Leeds | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| West Ham v Aston Villa | Over | Won | ✅ |
❌ CS Ticket | Profit: €-1.10
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Wolves | 2-0 | Lost | ❌ |
| Burnley v Fulham | 0-1 | Lost | ❌ |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | 1-2 | Lost | ❌ |
| Brentford v Leeds | 2-1 | Lost | ❌ |
💰 Financial Summary per Week
| Week | 1X2 P/L | O/U P/L | CS P/L | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 14 | -2.20€ | -1.18€ | -1.10€ | -4.48€ |
| 15 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 16 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| TOT | -8.80€ | -7.78€ | -4.40€ | -20.98€ |
💰 Total Weekly Net: €-5.50
⚙️ The Engine Overhaul: Implementing xG
Backtesting is non-negotiable here. When you run the past 4 weeks through the new xG model, we have to look for these specific "deltas":
xG vs. Actual Goals (The "Luck" Factor):
If a team has scored 10 goals but only generated 5.0 xG, they are "overperforming" and due for a regression (a loss or dry spell).
Model V1 sees them as a strong winning team. Model V2 (xG) should see them as a vulnerable team. This is where we will find our edge on the Over/Under markets specifically.
xGA (Expected Goals Against):
This is arguably more important than xG for 1X2 betting. A team might win games, but if their xGA is high, they are allowing dangerous chances.
Example: Man Utd conceding 4 goals. A simple form guide might not predict that, but if their xGA over the last 3 games was rising (e.g., 1.8, 2.1, 2.4), the model would flag their defence as "leaking," even if they weren't conceding many actual goals yet.
I still have some days left.
Cheers,
Peter
Disclaimer: Educational experiment. 18+ Only.