Well it wasn't the best week for my model. Like always there is the good the bad and the ugly. First let's have a look at the predictions.
🔍 Matchweek 14 Details
| Match | Score | 1X2 Pick | Res | O/U Pick | Res | CS Pick | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth v Everton | 0-1 | Home | ❌ | Under | ✅ | 1-0 | ❌ |
| Fulham v Man City | 4-5 | Away | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Newcastle v Tottenham | 2-2 | Home | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Arsenal v Brentford | 2-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Brighton v Aston Villa | 3-4 | Home | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Burnley v Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Away | ✅ | Under | ✅ | 0-1 | ✅ |
| Wolves v Nott'm Forest | 0-1 | Away | ✅ | Under | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Leeds v Chelsea | 3-1 | Away | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
| Liverpool v Sunderland | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
| Man United v West Ham | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
📊 Model: Week 14 (1u Flat)
| Model | Hitrate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 40% | -2.91u | -29.1% |
| O/U | 70% | +2.52u | +25.2% |
| CS | 10% | N/A | N/A |
| TOT | -0.39u |
The model is currently pretty good in prediction the O/U market, but is lacking good performances in the 1X2 market. A 70% hitrate is masive and would have been good enough for a 2.52 unit profit if you would bet on all those prediction a flat stake of 1 unit.
But this profit would have been wiped out by the bets on the 1X2 market, where we only good a miserable 40%. A decrease compared to last week.
But the model did outperform the predictions made by forebet. They are running much longer, have more data available and probably also smarter people working on it, then I.
I am curious to see if the O/U trend continues.
📈 History per Week
| Week | Games | 1X2% | 1X2 P/L | O/U% | O/U P/L | CS% | CS P/L | Total P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.96u | 50.0% | -1.06u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -2.02u |
| 14 | 10 | 40.0% | -2.91u | 70.0% | +2.52u | 10.0% | 0.00u | -0.39u |
| TOT | 20 | 45.0% | -3.87u | 60.0% | +1.46u | 5.0% | 0.00u | -2.41u |
🎫 Ticket Overview (Week 14)
The good news, we did had a payout. To bad this still did result into a loosing ticket. But o man, it could have been so much better. The first 4 games in the O/U ticket were correct, so we had the Liverpool and United game left. For in sure in the Liverpool game, West Ham had a huge chance for the winning goal in the dying minutes, even seconds of the game, to bad for him his team and my bet he did loose. We had a second attempt yesterday evening with the United game but also there that third goal just won't land.
On the other hand, the 1X2 ticket was lost in space. Only 2 of the 6 games correct. In this case it isn't the scenario where the model didn't select the correct games, the model had it just completely wrong over the complete line. Shit happens. And just like for the prediction I won't touch the bet selection in the upcoming 2 match days.
❌ 1X2 Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United v West Ham | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Fulham v Man City | Away | Won | ✅ |
| Leeds v Chelsea | Away | Lost | ❌ |
| Bournemouth v Everton | Home | Lost | ❌ |
| Burnley v Crystal Palace | Away | Won | ✅ |
| Newcastle v Tottenham | Home | Lost | ❌ |
⚠️ O/U Ticket | Profit: €-1.18
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United v West Ham | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Liverpool v Sunderland | Over | Lost | ❌ |
| Newcastle v Tottenham | Over | Won | ✅ |
| Burnley v Crystal Palace | Under | Won | ✅ |
| Wolves v Nott'm Forest | Under | Won | ✅ |
| Bournemouth v Everton | Under | Won | ✅ |
❌ CS Ticket | Profit: €-1.10
| Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley v Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Won | ✅ |
| Bournemouth v Everton | 1-0 | Lost | ❌ |
| Fulham v Man City | 1-2 | Lost | ❌ |
| Leeds v Chelsea | 1-2 | Lost | ❌ |
💰 Financial Summary per Week
| Week | 1X2 P/L | O/U P/L | CS P/L | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
| 14 | -2.20€ | -1.18€ | -1.10€ | -4.48€ |
| TOT | -4.40€ | -3.38€ | -2.20€ | -9.98€ |
💰 Total Weekly Net: €-4.48
Disclaimer: Educational experiment. 18+ Only.
I will try to post the predictions and my bets tomorrow morning or close to noon.
Cheers,
Peter