As an African from a third-world country, it is easy to just stay neutral and watch as events unfold in the ongoing face-off between Russia and Ukraine, two countries that use to be parts of the old USSR. I try to avoid as much politics as possible. However, in this case, we are talking about a potential nuclear war if things deteriorate further. A nuclear war will affect all and sundries as far as the world biodiversity of plants, animals, and humans is concerned.
With the continued call for a no-fly zone order to be imposed over Ukraine from different quarters, the two leading countries in terms of nuclear warheads may end up being pitted against one another. Even though a lot has been done to ease the tension as far as a potential nuclear war is concerned, neither the United States nor Russia signed an agreement of "no first deployment. Meaning that neither of the two countries is bound to wait to be nuclearly attacked first before launching a nuclear weapon.
The first and the only time a nuclear weapon was used in war was in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. An enriched uranium bomb of about 64kg was dropped and the devastating effects that followed are still being talked about as of today because no single weapon in history has produced such effects. Currently, the country with the smallest nuclear weapons, North Korea, seems to have like forty times the ones used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The two leading countries, Russia and the United States have a combination of nuclear weapons that is thousands of times the multiple of what was used in Japan.
If a nuclear war breaks out between the two largest stockpilers of nuclear warheads, it is not likely that the entire world will survive from the direct and multiplier effects of the bombs. The effects of a potential nuclear war have been modeled by a couple of researchers and the predictions are not something any living organisms will ever dream of. The effects are mainly of two types:
- Direct effect
- multiplier or indirect effects
The direct effects have to do with the destruction of lives and properties that the immediate explosions of the nuclear bombs cause. Depending on the target, thousands, millions, or even billions of people could die from the direct effects of explosions, fireballs, and radiation poisoning. The direct effect also includes the generation of electromagnetic radiation that would damage all electronics, taking humanity back to the pre-civilization era.
The indirect effects are what should probably get people in third world countries concerned. Depending on the magnitude of the nuclear warhead used and the places targeted, nuclear autumn or winter could follow. A significant amount of the smoke, dust and particulate matter generated from explosions will find its way to the upper stratosphere. The implication is that the rays of the sun that reach the earth will become limited, resulting in a lower average temperature of the earth.
A significantly lower average temperature of the earth means that crop production will suffer and years of famine would be the result. According to estimates, billions of humans could be lost to famine. Note that the nuclear autumn may not affect the entire planet.
According to models, if 5 to 50 million tons of smoke is able to find its way to the upper stratosphere, it is enough to cause nuclear autumn. Beyond that, a nuclear winter may result.
Nuclear winter is like an apocalypse. The entire world is predicted to suffer a more significant drop in temperature. The hydrological cycle of the planet would be significantly altered by this massive drop in temperature and some parts of the World may experience incessant precipitation while some other parts may not witness any. Extreme hunger would be the order of the day and the few survivors may wage war against each other in competition for the little resources left. In other words, a nuclear winter may put an end to humanity entirely.
While a nuclear war between two nuclear lilliputians may result in nuclear autumn, the US and Russia only need to use less than 20% of their stash in order to cause a nuclear winter.
TL:DR
Everyone should be concerned about a potential nuclear war between the US and Russia which may result from the ongoing face-off between Russia and Ukraine. A nuclear war between the two world nuclear warhead giants will:
- Wipe out the two countries, at least
- Generate electromagnetic radiation that will damage all forms of electronics
- Cause nuclear winter which is characterized by a significant drop in temperature, food production, etc.
According to reports, 50 to 90% of the world's population may be lost, assuming it is not 100%.