It's been like a week of BTC ETF approval and now it's down -20% while gbtc is constantly dumping Bitcoin in the market.
We've to think about where Bitcoin and crypto market will be in next 6-7 months. Last year was up only mostly that too because of the ETF narrative, now crypto market is more like tradfi.
People do have to watch out flows/inflows of those ETFs when tradfi market opens and during weekends when tradfi is closed that's when things become more interesting.
I've to make analysis of my own to see where we'll be in the next 5-6 months and for that we've to see what's going on at the moment.
GBTC dumping Bitcoin in Batches on Coinbase
After all those people trapped in gbtc have got bailed out and now these sell pressure in the market from grayscale is the reason market is -20% down since the ETF approval.
Grayscale is depositing Bitcoin on Coinbase every day to dump... Mostly in 1000BTC in one transactions batches.
They've deposited about 47.9K BTC worth about $1.97B so far..
This is kinda ridiculous sell pressure in market and I'm now in doubt for how bulls will maintain BTC above $40K.
BlackRock Bitcoin Holdings increasing Rapidly
There's a reason why Bitcoin is still above $40K and that reason is ETFs have buy pressure on daily base like the sell pressure so market is absorbing it.
The winner is see in the making is BlackRock, it now holds over 25,067 $BTC worth about $1.06B.
And about couple days ago it was about 600M... So, they're increasing Bitcoin holdings rapidly.
My only concern is why grayscale is dumping on the market when they can do it through OTC? Like ask BlackRock or saylor to buy those bitcoins.
It took saylor to accumulate $4b worth of Bitcoin years and BlackRock is now at $1B within days.
Crypto market on Weekends is Safe
The thing is grayscale can't dump Bitcoin on weekends and there won't be any buy pressure from other ETFs.
Now there are two scenarios; retailers like whales etc in crypto dump on the weekends.. so grayscale have to sell lower and they stay safe.
Or only if grayscale stop dumping Bitcoin, than retailers will buy the market on weekends and going to push prices higher so when tradfi opens on monday... They buy higher.
Before ETF approval we all thought, we are going to dump on suits but they get away with it like every other time.
The scenario in my mind: ETH and Alt's to dominate
Bitcoin going sideways or down while ETH is still showing some strength and surprisingly Altcoins looks Good.
The wet dream is to see Bitcoin at $30K this Q1 before halving... $35-$37k is possible target of mine.
If altcoins did a -30 to -40% from current prices that's going to be when I'll not think twice to buy but for now I'm comfortable with my allocation.
The coins that are showing strength during this time will dominate most likely $TIA, $INJ, $RNDR and ETH betas.
As long as ETH/BTC is showing strength this rally is still on for Alt's.
During these times I believe it's best to farm airdrop and there are plenty of ongoing on almost every chain.
Wrapping Up...
In the end halving is now coming near and selling will eventually happen and over very soon.. it's comfortable for long term holders and patience is all we needed.
Hopefully by the end of this month market will be on a green side... I'd like to know what you think about and what are your sentiments about market?
