First and foremost, here is the link to steemhunt - https://token.steemhunt.com/ It tells you what the project is all about, what it aims to be and how you can join and contribute. I have been on steemhunt since July of this year. I have completed more than 151 successful hunt that have generated $543 sbd hunter rewards.
I currently enjoy a community role called influencer, that requires me to upvote undervalued hunts.
There has been a lot of talk amongst community members about what the hunt token will be worth? Honest answer is God knows, and if you are an atheist then well no one really knows. However, one can use intelligent guesswork to assign a value to the hunt token. This is what the post is about. After all, a lot of people can get interest in any platform if they smell a lot of money in it.
Recently, steemhunt started paying rewards in hunt token. Here is the post that provides details - https://steemit.com/steemhunt/@steemhunt/boost-hunt-is-live-now-converting-stu-rewards-to-hunt-tokens
As per the above post 1 STU is equal to 19.97 hunt tokens -
So steemhunt has itself assigned a $ value to hunt tokens now, $1 = 20 Hunt tokens = 4 x 1 steem (since steem is worth ~0.25 cents) there each hunt token is now being given a value of price of steem x (4/20) = 5 cents approximately. Now given the total supply of 500 million, that values steemhunt at US$ 25 million. Is it cheap, let's find out.
Typically in finance, to get valuation of something, there are broadly two methods used - multiples & discounted cash flow. I am going to focus only on relative value versus other companies and therefore use multiples method. Discounted cash flow for a tech company is difficult to assess, also because I have no clue about sh's financials.
Now, to use multiples, I need to find companies similar to steemhunt, their valuations and find metrics that are comparable, for examples, active user base, site visitors. Then I will calculate the value for steemhunt from these data points. It is a very simple and brute force approach but to an investor, this would a useful approach to begin the process of investing and conduct due diligence on any company. As per this steemit post by steemhunt - https://steemit.com/steemit/@steemhunt/announcing-hunt-token-airdrops-for-steemians-smart-media-token-project, steemhunt comparables can be as follows -
Now an obvious comparison is product hunt that was acquired by angel list for $20 million in 2016. It currently has 1.25 million active users (the answer is from quora, so not sure how reliable). In Oct 2015, it had 400,000 user so when it got acquired, I am assuming it had 500 to 600 thousand active users. Also, it gets about 8 million visitors a month (https://www.similarweb.com/website/producthunt.com). Anyway, product hunt today should be worth anywhere between 60 to 100 million US$ based on growth in number of active users, $100 million if i take into account inflation and slightly increased valuation from network effect.
From the same source (https://www.similarweb.com/), steemhunt has 209k visits a month. Steemit has a whopping 13.26 million visits a month. Getting steemhunt popular on steemit itself should be helpful and drive traffic. Anyway, I wish I could get figure for daily monthly visits for product hunt from when it was acquired but can't find that data. At 209k visits a month which is approximately 26% of ph and 16% of steemit, I think steemhunt should be worth (using $65 million valuation for ph) 17 million to 26 million US$ (using $100 million ph valuation). The current token value at STU/Hunt ratio, kind of is fair value at this point of time. Using steemit valuation of 68 million from coinmarketcap, product hunt is valued at far lower.
So using the approximations above (and I welcome suggestions to improve these calculations), 5 cents is a decent value for hunt token. An obvious source of value is getting more page visits to the platform and increasing user base which sh is actively doing, rewarding social shares with hunt tokens and also seeking medium writers. And don't forget, steemhunt also has to have a review hunt and idea hunt. I have not incorporated valuations of those units right now. Kick starter is valued anywhere between 300 to 500 million with 50 million visitors a month. If Idea hunt could be worth 1% of that, that is an additional 30 million valuation and then review hunt separate. And with higher adoption of cryptocurrency, steemit, and sh, the prospects for sh are bright.
Welcome suggestions on this, what do you think sh could be worth or any ways to improve the guesstimate?