Original Source (Edited with Canva)
Hello, hivers. Today, first of all, I want to thank you for the boost in support I've been getting —since the end of last month— in the curation of my content here. I have been doing my bit for some time now in the task of pushing political analysis on Hive, always giving my best in every contribution —even when the rewards were few—, but it is clear that having your attention and appreciation elevates my commitment as a content creator.
Someone might think that this is an easy job, but I have gladly bought into the task of navigating the vast universe of news associated with Latin America, which is not short, selecting those that contribute the most value to the conversation and understanding of the state of affairs, and accompanying the necessary glossing of what I read and observe with my comments, always anchored in what I modestly know about history, political science, and communication theory. The last few reports, for example, I have done in the early hours of the morning, without the possibility of catching up on sleep because I had to be in the classroom ready to teach my classes (in this semester of Political Economy) regardless of the fatigue. So it is certainly comforting to have your strong support. That said, let's warm up with our tour today.
Perú
Wednesday was an intense day in Peru, but let's start by referring to the migration crisis involving the Andean country. As we have been pointing out in the last few issues, hundreds of individuals —many of them of Venezuelan origin— who are trying to return to their homeland from Chile, are stranded on the border shared by Peruvians and Chileans in the Atacama Desert. From statements by Peruvian Interior Minister Vicente Romero, we know that there are approximately 900,000 foreigners residing without proper legalization in that nation, almost all of them Venezuelans who arrived after a politically flawed migration initiative that is now coming back as a boomerang (the chaotic and disputed government of Dina Boluarte has arranged a temporary window for foreigners to verify their immigration status).
But while negotiations continue for the installation of a "humanitarian corridor" that seems further and further away, we learned the good news that at least 150 Venezuelans will return to their homeland this weekend in a plane sent by the government of Nicolás Maduro, which will finance the operation. Another smaller group of Venezuelans now in Peru will also benefit from this Venezuelan program known as "Return to the Homeland".
Hundreds of migrants are stranded at the border between Peru and Chil (Source).
In another development, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights released a harsh report pointing out the attitude of the police authorities and military personnel in response to the social protests following the ousting of the clumsy former president Pedro Castillo, which lasted until the end of January this year. The adjectives are concise: there is talk of massacres (more than 60 people were killed) and extrajudicial executions, directed at specific geographical areas, particularly in Ayacucho and Puno, that, according to the report, invite a racial/ethnic perspective in the analysis. The government of Dina Boluarte, although it is outright denying the findings of at least two international organizations, is being directly and independently investigated by the Public Prosecutor's Office for the alleged facts.
Relatives of deceased protesters in Juliaca, Peru, await the delivery of the bodies last January. Photo credited to STRINGER (EFE), obtained via Twitter.
Finally, we mention that Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi is visiting Latin America to increase the quota of minerals and other resources produced here that are destined for his country. In Peru, he held talks where he showed interest in expanding imports of items such as copper, of which the Andean nation is the second largest producer on a global scale (although there are reports such as this one that places the Democratic Republic of Congo in that position). Between copper, zinc, tin, and liquefied natural gas, the country exported goods to Japan alone for a total of 953 million dollars. Let us now analyze this value, which I repeat is a sample of its exports (most of them are destined for China), against the data reported last week by the World Bank associated with poverty there, with 7 out of 10 Peruvians living in urban areas in that condition or at risk of falling into it (and, for the record, it is only stated without providing clear statistics that the situation is worse in rural areas).
Colombia
President Gustavo Petro arrived in Spain on Wednesday, where he was elegantly received by Don Felipe VI and Doña Letizia Ortiz —I know they are kings, but I find it hard to use the term in the 21st century—. The former member of the M-19 seeks to establish himself as one of the most prominent voices in the global debate on climate change, and so in his statements there he alluded to the possibility of Latin America becoming a leading region by implementing the concept of a low-carbon economy. It is interesting, by the way, his perspective of linking the settlement or not of the climate issue with the future of democracy. He also did not miss the opportunity to recall the place to which the international division of labor historically relegated our region, essentially as an export zone of raw materials due to the inability to close the productive cycle in its demarcation.
The King and Queen offered lunch to Petro and his wife at the famous Palacio de la Zarzuela (Source).
In dialogue with his Spanish counterpart, Pedro Sánchez, he has requested that, depending on the concrete results of the dialogue in Havana with the National Liberation Army (ELN in Spanish), Madrid use its political weight, strategic during the second half of the year at the head of the Council of the European Union, to negotiate the removal of the aforementioned organization from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism. Sánchez has affirmed that they will be outstanding spokespersons of the position that the Colombian government transmits to them. The most urgent goal of the dialogue, let us remember, is the cease-fire, with the more future vision of the ELN becoming a political entity that participates in Colombian democracy. Finally, he also offered his views on the fentanyl crisis in the United States and the demonstrated failure in his opinion of the "war on drugs" policy, referring to alarming figures of dead Latin Americans involved in the clandestine drug market, and 10 million Americans in prisons, mostly poor, blacks and Latinos, he said.
Petro and Pedro Sánchez at Moncloa Palace (Source).
But the best part of Petro's visit, in my opinion, was an interview granted to the newspaper El País, conducted by its director Pepa Bueno. It was a space where the first leftist president in Colombian history sounded very sincere, and frank, in his answers. Nine months after reaching the Casa de Nariño, he has understood that although to carry out a government program it is necessary to win at the polls, the real challenge is to bring this project to fruition despite all the attacks and threats that it will suffer along the way. Petro says that "change is more difficult than we thought". Although he did not sound pessimistic, there is a clear assumption of defeat as a possibility of his bet, placing on the people a good part of the responsibility for it to bear fruit. The interview is in Spanish, but I strongly recommend reading it.
Petro at his country embassy in Spain (Source).
Venezuela
In positive news for an economic recovery that has not yet become stable, Venezuelan oil shipments again exceeded 700,000 barrels per day. In our last report, if you remember, we stated that, indirectly, the injection of foreign currency in the private exchange market by the US oil company Chevron —to obtain local currency—, alleviates the burden that the Venezuelan Central Bank must bear in its task of balancing the exchange rate. The resumption of export operations, which had been halted due to an extensive corruption investigation, cements the availability of fresh foreign currency, while measures have been taken to ensure payments (a basic dynamic that without any justification was broken). During April, just over 703,000 barrels of crude and fuel per day were shipped out, according to documents of the state-owned oil company reviewed by Reuters.
The US shadow
Regarding the political crisis, I observe that the United States, instead of being a positive agent as it claims to be, is adding fuel to the fire with the latest decisions related to Venezuela. To tell the truth, the license issued by the OFAC in favor of a legislative body that, if at some point it was legitimate —I am talking about the Venezuelan National Assembly in the 2016-2021 period, with an opposition majority—, is not anymore in that stance. The intention is to allow this group to negotiate a series of sovereign assets of the Republic, which contributes to an increase of distrust on the part of the latter, and in general, it darkens the atmosphere for the results of the negotiations to be positive.
The U.S. will not block a court auction of shares in oil refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp's parent, Justice Department officials told a federal court, paving the way for a potential seizure by creditors of Venezuela's most-prized foreign asset. https://t.co/bFAR9OPZ9g
— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) April 30, 2023
México
If on Tuesday we spoke of the positive spirit on immigration issues with which Andrés Manuel López Obrador responded to the United States, today we report two new episodes of harsh statements by the Mexican president towards the White House. The Spanish news agency EFE, for example, reports AMLO's refusal of Washington's request to allow U.S. planes and drones to enter Mexican airspace to monitor the flight of another alleged "spy balloon" from Asia. He stated that Mexico had the means to carry out the monitoring on its own, and as such it was done.
The other criticism, which is not new, is of USAID's support to NGOs that openly oppose the political movement led by the president and as such his government. AMLO sent a letter to Biden dated May 2, stating his opposition to a practice he considers a continued act of disrespect to international law. As a scholar of the subject in its Cuban chapter (USAID implements an even more intense and obscure regime program change aimed at the Island), I share his reasoning, and I am sure he is being ironic when he exonerates Biden from blame "because he must not be aware of the situation" (otherwise it would be a very improper naivety of a politician of his experience).
El presidente de México, Andrés López Obrador, envió una carta a su homólogo de EE.UU., Joe Biden, para denunciar que Washington financia abiertamente a organizaciones opositoras mexicanas, por medio de la USAID. pic.twitter.com/oi9SPh1VT2
— JP+ () May 3, 2023
#Entérate| Karen Jean-Pierre evita hablar sobre la carta que López Obrador envió a Biden para pedir que USAID deje de financiar supuesta oposición. pic.twitter.com/ZZeqQvkPzt
— Panorama Sin Reservas 620 AM () May 4, 2023
The father
On the other hand, the President responded to the allegations that have been circulating in recent hours regarding corruption schemes in which two of his sons could be involved. An investigation published in LatinUS shows that a network formed by Andrés Manuel López Beltrán's friends has been awarded contracts with the Federal Government for more than five million dollars. It seems to me that this is an important indication for a serious and objective investigation, but in principle, it doesn't prove anything against the president's son. AMLO himself has urged the journalist who wrote the investigation to go to the Attorney General's Office if he has evidence of his son's direct involvement in the awarding processes. Another accusation, this one against José Ramón López Beltrán, points out that he resides in the house whose ownership is attributed to the assistant director of La Jornada, a Mexican newspaper whose contracts in the last six years, according to an investigation reviewed by EFE, amount to more than 41 million dollars.
Violence
Finally here, in the umpteenth example of the serious problem of violence in the Aztec nation, eight people, including two women, died on Tuesday night in the middle of a confrontation between members of the National Defense Secretariat and, presumably, an advance guard of members of the "Jalisco Nueva Generación" cartel. It was not known whether the dead were part of the criminal gang.
Ecuador
In a development that may contribute to the fulfillment of the presidential promise to double oil production by 2025, Ecuador will evaluate the applications of four companies interested in an equal number of oil blocks located in the Amazon, out of a total of six in the bidding process. The proposals come from companies from China, Canada, Uruguay, and Argentina (in the last two cases they are subsidiaries based in Ecuador itself). The total estimated amount of investments in the area amounts to more than US$ 2 billion.
Fighting terrorism
On the other hand, in the deployment of a new way to confront the extremely serious situation in which organized crime has plunged the country, six alleged criminals were killed by the police, as part of the confrontation in the field of five different cases in less than 30 hours. Everything indicates an escalation in tensions between the authorities and the criminals following the murder of two policemen, who were mercilessly shot in response to the death of a criminal involved in the robbery of a bank.
The government's discourse now is that they will respond with bullets to bullets, blessed by the official recommendation to use lethal weapons to combat "terrorism", a term that concentrates on the violence perpetrated by organized crime. President Guillermo Lasso effectively authorized yesterday, Wednesday, the "military operations" for this purpose, so the police feel more confident to pull the trigger without fear of repercussions to events such as assaults, kidnappings, or robberies.
Firearm seized from a suspected criminal in Ecuador by police ( Source)
Finance
The rebound in the basket of six currencies in the region that define their financial strength finally happened yesterday, Wednesday —with the Mexican peso reaching its best position against the dollar since 2017—, in a sort of late or under-managed reaction in my view following the US employment data and the latest official statements from the Fed (although shadows were again woven today as a result of what is happening with PacWest Bancorp). On Thursday, although the early performance of the six national currencies was negative, in general, their pulse against the dollar was positive, which advanced slightly by 0.2 % here. The best performance was achieved by the Chilean peso, with its Argentinean peer carrying the worst loss (indeed negative again for the second consecutive day)
| Countries | Local currency balance | Local stock index balance |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | +0.46% | No data reported (MSCI COLCAP) |
| México | +0.08% | -0.51% (S&P/BMV IPC) |
| Perú | -0.2% | +0.02% (S&P/BVL) |
| Argentina | -0.22% | -2.45% (S&P Merval) |
| Chile | +0.63% | +0.21% (IPSA) |
| Brazil | +0.21% | +0.37% (Bovespa) |
Daily balance of main currencies and stock indexes in Latin America ( Source).
Regional quicks
Police authorities in Brazil searched the home of former president Jair Bolsonaro, confiscated his phone, and arrested six people following an order from the active and influential judge Alexandre de Moraes. The objective was to find information about the vaccination records of the controversial Brazilian politician with a military background, which had been adulterated in the public systems to temporarily ensure that he would not have problems abroad —especially on his trips to the United States— because he had never been vaccinated against Covid-19. Reading his statements carefully, I believe that rather than denying the accusation made against him, Bolsonaro only affirms that he was never asked for his vaccination certificate there. AFP reports that the requirement for evidence of vaccination, which expires next May 11, does not apply to foreign officials.
A recent report by several organizations, including the World Bank and Microsoft, shows that 72 million rural inhabitants in Latin America (almost 57% of the total) do not have access to connectivity with minimum quality standards, which is affecting a reduction in the capacity of the agri-food sector to better impact inward and outward from the advance of digitization. The report was presented in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras.
This is all for our twenty-second report. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.
Edited with Canva.
