Hello, my friends. Today I want to share with you my opinion on the latest developments regarding the economy in Cuba. Not long ago I told you about some economic measures that were coming for 2024, and well, now we know more details. So I am not surprised by the drastic measures that will be implemented.
First, let me tell you that what I anticipated as a disaster, now seems to be worse. The government announced a package of seven measures, and three days ago they specified in detail what and how much they were. They brought to light the percentage data of at least two of these measures.
The first of these is in relation to the increase in fuel prices. We knew it was coming, but we had no idea how much. This will be effective on February 1, so a liter of gasoline or diesel is still between 20 and 25 Cuban pesos, but it can only be purchased almost exclusively in Havana and that by queuing for hours. So it will only be a slight increase, almost 500%. Yes, it is no joke. Gasoline and diesel will be at 114 and 198 Cuban pesos respectively. Now, to give you an idea, our average salary is around 3828 Cuban pesos. And what does this mean? Well, a liter of gasoline, the cheapest, represents 2.97% of our average salary in Cuba. So soon we will return to the primitive age, we will be transported by animal attraction.
But that is not all, because the second measure comes as a consequence of the fuel increase; the first direct consequence of this. I am referring to the increase in the price of transportation. Remember what I told you about the increase in fuel? Of course, everything that depends on it will also go up, and you cannot imagine how much. Bus fares increased by 400%, railroads by 600% and aviation by 468%. This measure will become effective during the month of March.
So my great concern is the knock-on effect this will have. Mainly in agriculture, which has already been suffering a drop in production during the last few years. In addition, shortages, inflation and foreign exchange should receive the direct impact of these measures. How are we going to survive now with these new economic shocks? That must be the million dollar question.
In an economy that is not lifting its head, and an example of this is the GDP for 2023 which contracted by 2%, according to state data, so in reality it would be much, much worse. They are dealing with huge problems, and now the situation looks even bleaker. If only there was enough fuel to supply the demand, but there certainly won't be. An example of this is the current prices, where the State sells it at 25, but the supply is so miserable, that an alternative market arises, where its price is usually higher than 300 Cuban pesos.
These economic measures are hitting hard, and we can only prepare for the worst. The exorbitant increases in fuel and transportation prices affect all of us, from the worker who has to go to work to the farmer who struggles to produce food. It is a heavy blow, and we can only hope that measures will be taken to alleviate this burden that is being imposed on us or the end of an inept government will come.
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Original text in Spanish: Translated with DeepL
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