Braeburn's World Cup Blog - The Final.

So Sunday's World Cup Final will be between France and Croatia, a matchup not many will have predicted before the tournament got underway in the middle of June. How long ago that Russia versus Saudi Arabia match feels now. It has been a month of surprises, the big guns have rarely had their way. Can the French strike a blow for the favourites or will Croatia give us a fitting end for this strange and wonderful World Cup?

Youth versus experience, one of Kylian Mbappe or Luka Modrić will be celebrating on Sunday.

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This is the twenty-first World Cup Final and only the fourth to feature none of Brazil, Germany or Italy. Only seven nations have featured in the showpiece between 1966 and 2014 and of those Spain boast only a single appearance. The others are shared between Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, The Netherlands and France. The point of all this is to show that reaching a World Cup Final is not easy. That Belgium and England fell agonisingly short should come as no surprise, the odds were against them. The odds of reaching a final were stacked against Croatia too though. That they, a country of just 4.2 million souls should be playing in Moscow on Sunday is a statistical anomaly.

World Cup Final Data from 1970 to 2018.

*Latest available estimates courtesy of wikipedia.
** Not including Sunday's final.

However getting to the final is one thing, winning it will be quite another. Since 1970 no country with a population of less than 40 million has lifted the big one. Three times the Netherlands, with their paltry 17 million inhabitants, have bucked the trend and made the final and each time they have lost. Spain clearly had a superior team in 2010 but in '74 and '78 the Dutch were arguably the best in the World and still, they could not get over the line. Of course being a populous nation is no guarantee of World Cup success, if it were, England would appear on the list above. However, the fact remains, no country with a population of less than 40 million has won the World Cup since Uruguay in 1950.

If your name's not down... Since 1970 places in the World Cup Final are the preserve of a very select few.

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Thankfully football (indeed all sport) is not decided on paper or the analysis of numbers. Even statistic-heavy sports like cricket and baseball are played on the field and decided by human performance. Success and failure is determined by nerve, by skill and by an ability to perform those skills under intense pressure. Of the two finalists, France have had the tougher route to the final and yet Argentina, Uruguay and Belgium have all been dispatched without the need of extra-time or penalties. Croatia, on the other hand, have scrapped and fought their way through three sets of 120 minutes and two nerve-jangling penalty shoot-outs. It is a miracle that they are in the final at all, only a fool would write them off now.

Final defeat sinks in for Antoine Griezmann and Paul Pogba in 2016.

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Against England, the game looked to be up, Croatia had been outplayed for 45 minutes and were lucky not be more than a single goal behind. Imagine the dressing room, Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić, Ivan Rakitić, Mario Mandžukić, so much experience and big game savvy acquired during illustrious careers for some of Europe's greatest clubs, looking around at one another, they had been given a life. The foot that had been on their throat for 30 minutes had been lifted, they could breathe again and so they did what they had to do. Small nation or not these players went back out on the pitch and took control of that semi-final. They were supposed to be tired from their exploits in the previous rounds, they were supposed to flag and yet it was England who looked dead on their feet as the game drew on.

This is what all the fuss is about, who will get their hands on it next?

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Yet despite Croatia's heroics all indicators, including the historical, point to a France win. They have one of the tournaments outstanding individuals in Kylian Mbappe and a squad littered with experience. Even more pertinent perhaps are the memories of 2 years ago when they lost in their own European Championship Final to Portugal. Around half of the team that started that night in Paris will take to the pitch in Moscow and they will believe that this is their time. Whatever the final brings, the redemption of the favourites or a triumphant underdog in this tournament of shocks, the only sure thing is that history will be made in the Luzhniki Stadium on Sunday afternoon.