I see a lot of people complaining about the price of Hive. What they don't realize is that we are doing A LOT better compared to the last cycle.
It is easy to see all the coins go up in value and feel left out, but as I said, we are doing way better relative to other cryptos this cycle compared to the last one.
Let me explain.
Crypto cycles
In this post, I assume that crypto prices move in 4 year cycles, and are mainly influenced by the Bitcoin halving. The previous cycle was from 2013 to 2017 and the current one is from 2017 to 2021.
The best predictor of future trends is past data. Nothing is 100% correct, but it should be good enough. Comparing cycles, we can assume that 2020 should be similar to 2016 and that 2021 should be similar to 2017.
Now the good news is, 2020 is almost over and it was extremely similar to 2016. So as of today, the 4 year cycle theory seems to be working.
Steem/Hive within the cycle
Hive hardforked from Steem. So the Steem price history is technically also Hive's price history. Therefore I will need to work with both charts and will compare them to Bitcoin in both the previous and the current cycle.
Now funnily enough, Steem launched in April 2016, while Hive launched in March 2020. This is exactly 4 years later, making the cycle analysis super easy.
Now let's compare Steem's 2016 to Hive's 2020.
It's exactly the same chart. I can't stress this enough. Yes Steem's price looks higher, but the Supply was also way lower. If we look at the market cap, which is more accurate:
- December 2016 Steem = $31 million
- December 2020 Hive = $43 million
Both spikes in price (around may or june depending on the cycle) took us to a market cap of approximately $350 million. This repetition in price action is astounding.
Meanwhile, in both cycles, Bitcoin tripled in value while Steem/Hive stayed flat.
| Date | May 1st | December 29th |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin(previous cycle) | $452 | $1,000 |
| Bitcoin(current cycle) | $8,600 | $27,100 |
Clearly, Hive/Steem has a tendency to lag Bitcoin and remain flat well into the bull market. It does nothing for the first year of the bull market (2016 or 2020).
2020 is a repeat of 2016, almost like clockwork. Hive is even doing slightly better in marketcap terms (and much better if you include all the value that is held in Splinterlands, Leo, dCity, etc...).
But....
Now to the interesting part.
The question is, assuming that 2021 will also be a repeat of 2017, what's going to happen to the price of Hive?
Let's take a look at the Steem price in the last cycle.
The red arrow indicates where we currently are in the cycle.
Takeaways:
- Hive's price will probably remain flat for 2 or 3 more months.
- Expect a 100% move up in Hive's price in March.
- Expect craziness to start around June, 10X or more in price.
- Even more craziness at the end of 2021, 100X from current price.
What am I doing now?
Knowing all of that, I can't see any reason not to accumulate hive right now. I always like to be 2 steps ahead, and not chase the market. I will regularly increase my hive holdings in the next 2 to 3 months as the rest of the crypto market keeps rising (hopefully). Even if hive remains flat, as it is supposed to.
In fact, I have already started accumulating, and increased my HP by 12% yesterday. I also hold more Hive on exchanges, almost as much as I powered up.