What Market Phase are we entering into has been the introductory question for our last appointments. Are we going to listen to the Bulls or the Bears? Are we going to see a Bull Market or a Bear Market?
Welcome to Surfing the Market, we are already at our 37th appointment and I hope that with these easy tech analysis we have helped you in some forms, even just to evaluate different market perspectives.
Second appointment after the Holidays, and Bitcoin has started to make Bulls dreaming again.
Let’s start from our usual weekly perspective
Source: Tradingview - Weekly Chart
We are now seeing a bullish movement: usually at the end of the year, some privates and funds take profit or at least, sell positions trying to reduce the tax load. So FTX had been the trigger of a Bearish movement but then, the price felt the pressure of the Sellers. Now people are buying again (like I did), because price is starting to grow again.
I will keep quoting myself:
“As said before, in my personal opinion Bitcoin price can only drop towards 15000$ if major bad news come up, like a huge electricity crisis, a mobile network crisis or a gas limitation from Russia.”
Well, in this case, the major event happened but I did not consider the default of a Tier1 Exchange. And more Tier1 now are under the spot-light!
What do I expect from a daily perspective?
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Orange support is resisting for the moment, even if I do not exclude some fake-breakout during the incoming weekend, where less volumes come into play and the market is potentially more easily orientable.
The price encountered now the Blue line, that we are observing since weeks. I kind of forecasted that in the case of a bullish movement, the Blue level would have been a likely target. And here we are.
Source: Screenshot Dollar Strength Index
Dollar Strength Index found a strong support in the 104 points area. It bounced up BUT has not broken downwards the support, ranging in the 102 area. We know that the most weak the DXY, the most likely other correlated assets raise in price. So Bitcoin is doing now.
And this is the second Bullish feature that is driving the price at the moment.
50MA and 200MA have been broken upwards from the price action. The 50MA (red) is showing some raise attitude as well, meaning that in the coming weeks we may potentially see a Golden Cross on the Daily Timeframe. The Golden Cross is usually a Bullish signal and the higher the Timeframe, the stronger the signal may be.
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Ichimoku Clouds are again very thin, meaning that the price range where they are ranging can be quite weak. BUT, the price is far above the Ichimoku Clouds, meaning that for the moment, the Clouds are not giving relevant signals of a bearish movement, since all the signals are Bullish for the moment.
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Stochastic is confirmed in the overbought area and locally this can lead to a move downwards but during a bullish movement oscillators stay in the overbought area for almost all the trend.
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Stochastic confirms the bullish movement, staying in the overbought area.
And now, what from a Volume perspective?
Source: Tradingview - Daily Chart
Volumes have significantly increased in the last week, meaning that real buyers have entered the market and we did not assisted a mere dead-cat-bounce. Volumes are back, so we can start making some Technical Analysis again.
What to observe particularly?
I am still quietly bullish, even if some temporary set-back of the price may be seen. I am thankful since I bought some fractions of BTC at 16500$ area.
We are also keeping up the development of our automatic indicator. We are now testing it on ETH, that is more volatile than Bitcoin and we appreciated that our indicator performs nicely when market moves. And so we are headed.
Let me know what you think about this new weekly appointment, and what indicators you would like to be taken into consideration more (or even explained).
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None of what I write can represent a financial advice in any form. So Do your own research before taking any kind of action.