BTC BULL RUN:
It has been controversial that the BTC bull run has ended for this time or not. Many people are against the thought that the BTC bull run is over for this cycle but many of them have the opposite views to this. In this article, I will give my personal views about the market and simple mathematics to calculate the peaks and bottom that has been playing well back then.
NOTE: This is a long term analysis, so you have to be prepared for 5-15% margin error
Before jumping into the price action, I would like to tell you few things about the BTC in long run. BTC has been growing exponentially and if you can hold for the long term without any panic and haven't invested the money that you may need sooner, there is no point in worrying about it according to the history of the Bitcoin price action. The main reason for this is we are still early in the crypto market and Blockchain industry. Bitcoin is the leading crypto in the field and it is the first thing that comes to the person's mind whenever anyone talks about crypto. And Bitcoin has already gained the network effect and the supply is limited. The bonus thing is that the inflation(new BTC coming to the supply) decreases by 50% every 4 years. Thanks to the Bitcoin halving.
LET'S LOOK AT THE BTC BOTTOM AND PEAK IN DIFFERENT CYCLE:
| Cycle Year | HIGH | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| First (2008-2011) | 31$ | 1$ |
| Second(2011-2013) | 1143$ | 2.12$ |
| Third(2014-2017) | 19500$ | 133$ |
| Third(2018-2021) | 63500$ | 3021$ |
In the first cycle the data is not clearly available from 2008. The data used is from the BLX index on the tradingview website.
What it tell us?
I have used the weekly,logarithmic chart because Bitcoin has been growing exponentially. I am presenting the peak and low and their growth % from last peak and low. So, you get an idea by what ratio are we growing in the bull market and declining in the bear market.
| CYCLE | % Spike from previous peak | % Decline AFTER BULL MARKET from the previous peak | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 CYCLE | 3611% | 421% | |
| 2017 CYCLE | 1567% | 168.99% | |
| 2021 CYCLE | 633% | 64.70% | (PROJECTED ACCORDINGLY) |
The above information from the two-cycle shows the ratio or factor by which the peak and bottom have been increasing and decreasing respectively from the previous cycle peak. Let's find out the peak of the 2021 Bull Cycle according to the information available from the last two-cycle.
- 2013 Cycle has been up by 3611% and the 2017 cycle has been up by 1567% from the 2013 cycle peak. Accordingly, it is shown that peak % has been decreasing by the factor of 2.3044 times. If we use this and multiply by the 2017 peak %. We come to the % of 680%. This implies the peak would be around 150K$. I have mentioned there can be a margin error. You can take it from 10-15%.
- 2017 Cycle bottom after the bull market was up by 168% from the peak of 2013 Peak and 203 cycle bottom has been up by 421% from the peak of 2011 peak. Accordingly, we can calculate the bottom of the 2021 Cycle could be 64% up from the peak of the last peak of 2017. Inexact number, the bottom lies around, 31K$.
FEW POINTS I WOULD LIKE TO ADD:
- There is a margin error in this model and will be in the coming cycle too.
- Every market cycle is dynamic and different from the previous one.
- Market cycle models works until they fails.
This is my view to the market and is my calculation which is not linked anyway to what market sentiments could be. If the price goes above or below 10-15% of my projection then, I would take this system as faulty. Unless that, I would be following it and you can take the idea about the market cycle from this information too.
So, what do you think about this model? Do you think we have hit the bottom? Please let me know your thoughts about this model in the comments below.
DISCLAIMER:
This post is only for education purposes. Use your own brain for your own money.