Since it is Friday night which seems to mean, nothing happening on Steem, I thought I would just free-write a little bit about some thoughts, or maybe more, some questions. Trading is not my forte although I have done a little over the time I have missed way too many opportunities but, my questions aren't really about trading, they are about the Bitcoin ETF drive, not the rejection, but the drive for it in the first place.
From my understanding, ETF (Exchange-traded Fund) are essentially turning Bitcoin into a type of everyday traded stock that can be bet against holdings and breaks down the investment into shares. I don't really know the details but, when I first started looking into cryptocurrencies the core rule was, if you don't hold the keys, it isn't yours. Doesn't BTC ETFs mean that the majority of traders have no keys as they are owners via proxy? It is kind of like you having stake on the food in my fridge and then getting hungry. It is my fridge, you don't have access.
There is a lot of money to be made in this process of course but I always question the motivations of crypto investors as on one hand they want idealistic freedom from the oppressive controls and legislation but, many want to be part of that very system. In some way, the idea of mainstreaming for many isn't to have the majority of people using the various blockchains, it is being accepted by the establishment they are trying to escape, kind of like a kid trying to prove themselves to Daddy. I am sure there are bigger pictures I don't understand and, most people don't understand.
A similar aspect of this is the Lambo! idea of crypto traders where they essentially prove that they are no different to the very people they claimed to break away from as given the opportunity, they satisfy their desires in the same way and what they desire is what everyone else wants. To me this is buying back into the system, having an open cage door and instead closing it again and handing the keys back to the jailer. The large banks and corporations that are involved in the mega circlejerks of global finance and, we buy what they are selling once we have enough money to do so.
Perhaps it is just destined to be so as we have been conditioned and programmed to want what they offer and will go to whatever lengths to get it and justify our consumption. It is kind of like me wanting to cut back on carbs but, there I am looking for some chocolate in the pantry or, buying a candy bar at the shop. There seems to be a disconnect between what we want and, what we do. Well, that is normal human behaviour isn't it?
It seems that we are always in two minds about where we want to be in the economy and perhaps for now that is the way it has to be since to buy in, at some point fiat is needed. But, there must be a critical mass point somewhere I think because if people are buying significantly into crypto (I am talking years down the track) the value of fiat will decrease accordingly as there must still be some rules of supply and demand at play and, it will be even worse considering that the price of fiat is already so manipulated and controlled by a handful of players.
If this is the case, at some point there will be a flooding effect into the cryptosphere as investors and funds look to stabilize their value or mitigate their losses. Wouldn't it be interesting if blockchain projects become the stable financial currencies and mechanisms? With the way blockchain works and how it will tie directly into real world events with each tracked, does that make the currency more or less manipulable, controllable?
At a company today they are having an issue with accounting for all aspects of their very large projects as some costs are grey areas as people haven't recorded every small cost incurred. Whe it is a two year project with a couple thousand people and many millions of dollars, there is a significant amount of missing data at project close. A blockchain and an automated system that writes or prompts for recording of all costs would close most of the loopholes, clear the grey and make the balance sheet add up with each transaction available to see.
Later on, this going to be the case of all blockchains as every public and private organisation runs their independent blockchains, connected to and referencing against all other blockchains meaning that, everything transaction and, everything we do will traceable. I believe that for the most part, once mainstreaming takes place anonymity is going to be extremely difficult to maintain. At the moment it is possible because the various systems aren't set up yet, nor are they talking to each other. We are leading ourselves into a cage of our own making as with enough data points, no on can hide.
For me, this is why great care needs to be taken with how we develop and, what systems we model ourselves upon. And just like the caveats that need to be considered with creating general AI, we need to develop a general philosophy as to how we as a global community are going to act and of course, interact. Will we push toward the greatest freedom of humanity or, the most oppressive?
When it comes to the approving of Bitcoin ETFs, does the confidence in BTC drop lower as it becomes traded like a stock that is not backed with keys? The people pushing for it are likely the largest holders so, they have their keys and they can back trades and take middlemen cuts like the banks do. The people who will trade it like a stock are unlikely to ever get their digital hands on some BTC. It does fix the very slow and expensive transfer rates though meaning they don't need to scale as, BTC really doesn't need to move.
Doesn't this kind of speculation dilute the BTC potency though as essentially, there can be a lot more BTC on the books than actually exist? How much gold to people own and how much do people actually hold? At some point, something is going to happen and the majority of owners are going to want access and find, there aren't enough BTC keys to go around, or the holders won't provide the keys as after all, the investors are indirect owners. Turmoil? Well, banks have done it before, they know what they are doing.
As you can see, I don't have a good picture of this area but to me it seems very risky to put cryptos in to the pool to be used in the same way as other stock and bonds etc, as once in, it must behave within the rules of the legislation which essentially centralizes it under the control of the organisations it was created to compete against. It seems a self-defeating move but, for the current holders, a very lucrative one. Everyone's ideals have a price.
For me, I don't own any BTC as I don't really trust it, even though there are going to be some massive gains to be made within it most likely. It is funny to talk about trust in crypto as essentially, it is all up in the air of uncertainty, despite the confidence held. What I do think though is that no matter what happens with BTC, the altcoins will mostly follow suit until the point BTC becomes useless and then, they will break away and the strength of the decentralization will be seen. This could rapidly see a divestment of BTC into alts as by then, not only will they be more independent, they will still be connected to real world projects that will help stabilize them through their usage thought various communities.
Anyway, this is an area I know a massive amount of nothing on so, don't take the post all too seriously or use it to invest with. For me to build a picture and get my head around things it helps to talk them out and develop a mental network of points to build upon or swap out and change as new information comes along. I think for many in crypto though the core goal is to make money, not satisfy some higher purpose for humanity. This means that greed and selling out to have what one wants run rampant as everyone still wants the big house, the fancy car and a beautiful wife.
I have a beautiful wife already, I would like to be able to make her life a little easier than it is one day, and perhaps give my family the space to make choices for themselves without having to be bound to some authority to grant or deny them access to opportunity. It may not be entirely possible or possible at all but, it just might be possible so, why not try?
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]