I want you to just look at it! This is a textbook falling wedge forming on Bitcoin's 1HR timeframe and it couldn't look any sweeter to me. I am not a big pattern trader, as they can fool you if you are not paying attention, but the falling wedge is my favorite pattern to trade because approximately 70% of the time it breaks out to the upside.
A Game of Numbers
Trading is a game of statistics and numbers so any of these chart patterns comes with some risk. One thing is that the big money players know all these patterns too and know how to counter trade them with bigger money than you have. So you always have to assume some risk.
That being said, I hit these patterns at least 70% of the time. Sometimes you have to watch for bull traps, but this is where risk management in the form of stop losses and take profit orders come into play.
Knowing When To Enter Is Half The Battle
With breakout trading, you have to be patient and enter at the right time. It's not always the best idea to enter on the initial breakout because what tends to happen is after it breaks, it retraces to find the break zone as support. That's the time to buy, the retest. That is if you aren't already in the trade. Many times, traders will 'front run' these patterns and buy in before the breakout. This comes of course with the risk that the pattern may fail, but that is where stop losses come into play.
So keep a watch out for Bitcoin to have a bit of a weekend run. I know I have half of my HBD trading stack ready to go when I get the signal! Heck, I may even try to front run a little bit, because I don't mind holding some BTC for a good swing trade.
Make sure to calculate your own risk and be safe out there in these markets!
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Disclaimer: The information in this trade journal is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
