Mr. Market is an elusive man. You don't know what he's going to do today or tomorrow or the next day. One thing that we do know is that the only way to hitch a ride with Mr. Market is to invest consistently, in small amounts and over long periods of time.
You want to know how to beat Mr. Market? You do it by not playing.
So my advice always remains the same: don't time the market.
Don't time the market.
Don't time the market.
I don't know how many times we have to say something like that but it seems like normies can never get it through their heads. They always want to try and time the market.
They think they know better than multi-billion dollar hedgefunds with thousands of analysts.
They think they know better than insiders.
They think they know better than computers who are doing HFT and analyzing data at lightning fast speeds that we could only try to comprehend.
So is Retail Doomed to Fail?
This is something that I often see people talking about. That the Retail investor is doomed to fail and there is no point in even trying.
I also find this to be bullshit. This is what those big firms, analysts and hedge funds want you to think. Financial planners would love it if everyone believed that retail could never win.
Retail can win. It just takes the right approach. If you want to win as a retail investor, you need to learn to not play their game. You need to play your own game, and you need to play it really f*cking well.
How to Win
How does one win as a retail investor? It's not by trading. It's not by finding a "market inefficiency". I am an efficient market theorist. I believe that things are priced in instantly.
I believe that between large hedge funds, insiders and High-Frequency Trading (HFT), there is little-to-no inefficiency left in the market.
When people tell you that they have some sort of algorithm for finding inefficiencies, I would be a little skeptical. I'm not saying it's impossible, but skeptical thought is healthy thought. Don't blindly follow anyone.