Hi HODLers, Hiveans and Lions,
Interesting update from the US Consumer in April.
Before looking at all this data, please note that the cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 21.
This means that the recent resolution on the tariffs front and subsequent news are not taken into account in this survey. This is important. This could be a bottom for the US Consumer Confidence Index.
Expectations are much worse than how consumers assess their current situation. Lowest point in the past 13 years!
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Extreme difference between Present Situation and Expectations
Expectations Six Months Hence
- 15.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 17.8% in March.
- 34.8% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 26.1%.
Labor Market Expectations
- 13.7% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 16.7% in March.
- 32.1% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 28.8%.
Not much we can conclude from this, May reading will be extremely interesting. Hopefully, we will see a bounce!
Stay safe out there,