DISCLAIMER : This tool is made for a scientific purpose. I am not and won't be responsible of the losses that you can occur if you decide to base your bets on this predictive model.
Not putting my money into sport betting as my life philosophy forbids it to me, i was still curious about how people draw their strategies to transform their bets into profits.
Some rely on their instincts, others prefers calculations. I am from the latter category.
Long story short, i had fun reading the study of M. J. Maher (1982) on Modelling Association Football scores using Poisson predictive model and i tried to duplicate it on excel as we all know that there is a Poisson Distribution Formula in Excel, right ?
I share with you my predictive model for the English Premier League 2016-2017. It isn't perfect but gives us an idea of how bookmakers build their odds.
You can download the tool here.
Data are extracted from here.
To keep the model as accurate as possible, it is necessary to update the results every day. The only thing to do for you here is to select the home team and the away team.
