I am struggling to process the events unfolding in Ukraine. I feel an unexpected amount of grief and frustration. Many of us know people whose families are directly affected. So it is personal in a way that perhaps other similar and even worse crises (like Syria was) are not.
Also, there is a realization of the enormous historical significance. While I was well aware of the dysfunctional nature of the Russian economy and of the excesses of the kleptocratic state, there was an unconscious expectation that matters would gradually improve being that Russia finds itself in the "new post WWII" (post cold war) Europe. I guess the extent to which Putin was stubbornly committed to regaining the glory of Russia and avenging the humiliation it has suffered, has been grossly underestimated. How stupid we were to think that a man who could order the poisoning of his rivals under the noses of the democratic governments of the west without flinching, could be expected to be deterred by any of the limits we regard as "normal". He is a creature from another time. And he is far from finished with this project. How many martyrs will be created before he is? How many souls will pass into oblivion unnoticed? How many will emerge scarred for life?
Meantime, I read of the inevitable demise of Mr. Putin. Smart journalists tell me he is putting the nails into his own coffin, slowly but surely, because the Russia that emerges from this is even less viable than before. The effects of the sanctions are no doubt being hyped. The oligarchs were given adequate warning to make insulating adjustments. The ruble will fall but will partially recover. Still, even discounting the hype, Putin has crossed a Rubicon. There is no going back. Putin is a pariah, and many Russians will be looking to get out from under him, and from under the burden he has placed on them. Would this, could this, have happened without Putin? An interesting question.
But how long will it take? And how much more damage, inside and outside of Russia, will it provoke?
One important element is the sizeable diaspora of Ukrainians that is rapidly developing as we speak. Even if and when Ukraine is under Russian occupation, the Ukrainian people have a long game to play and will live to fight another day. Perhaps there is some solace in that.