I am writing this to present what I hope you will consider out of the box thinking. This post is not intended to attack any race. It is not intended to bash Black Lives Matter. It is purely presenting some thoughts, some speculations, and perhaps some things we might want to look into and see if there is any merit to them.

It arises from a saying a friend of mind is really fond of saying:

Correlation does not equal causation.

The general idea here is that because you see elevated evidence of X when event A occurs that X may not necessarily be the cause of A. There could also by Y, and Z elevated evidence that might not be noticed if people fixate on X and ASSUME it is the cause of A without looking further. In other words just because there are elevated factors when an event occurs does not meant those factors were the reason that event happened.

Now let's apply this to the reason Black Lives Matter was founded. It was founded because there IS a elevated number of deaths by police for black people on a percentage basis. More whites are killed by cops every year than blacks, but on a percentage of population basis there is a distinct DIFFERENCE between blacks versus whites on a population percentage basis. Blacks are killed more often by cops in those cases.

So this correlation has lead to the idea that it is about race, and that it is racism that is leading to these events.

I began asking myself if perhaps this was leaping to a "correlation being causation" situation before considering other factors.

I have my own untested, speculative hypothesis I would like to pose. It does not eliminate the fact that there is a problem. Instead it seeks to clarify and point out an alternative correlation that may actually be the more likely causation.

What could help with determining any validity to this hypothesis I am going to propose would be collection of additional data. Someone may have already come up with this data, and they may or may not have thought to put it into the context that this hypothesis will propose.

1. We should map out where these deaths occur. I am suspecting we will see a lot of clustering and the bulk of these will tend to cluster in certain areas.
2. We should also map out all other police encounter fatalities including whites and other minorities. I suspect a lot of them will cluster in these same areas.

My untested hypothesis at this point is as follows:

The actual cause for elevated fatalities in interactions with law enforcement is due to the culture, and behavioral identity of neighborhoods or regions rather than race.

I was born in 1970. I was in Junior High when Rap and Break Dancing hit the scenes. I remember it quite well. I like everyone else thought break dancing was amazing (I still do). I wasn't into rap, but I was there when it was new and it has evolved a huge amount since that time.

Yet, I do remember making up my own rap lyrics. Back then we always threw in drug references, and we tried to make it as thuggish as we could. We were not doing this to be assholes. This was simply a thematic pattern we had noticed for the music. It was much like the joke about if you play country music backwards the guy gets his dog back, his wife who divorced him is back married to him, and his truck is no longer broke down. Most people chuckle as they instinctively get this. Well mentioning the drugs, and the thug like things, with throwing in HO, and HOMIES back then was similar to talking about country that way. It was a very common theme with the music.

1988

NWA - Fuk Da Police

1990

Ice-T - Cop Killer (Lyrics)

I actually saw that in concert myself. This was not a one of a kind event. This was a pretty common theme with many rap, and in this case rap/punk/thrash metal type music.

Non-Music Factors

The music was definitely popular and there were lots of infamous gang style killings, and there are jokes that being a criminal gives a rapper more street credentials.

Yet this wasn't the only cultural changes that were occurring. There was actually quite the cultural explosion and so much of it was centered around rap, but it also was centered around drugs, and the rise of the Crips and the Bloods. People were hearing about people being killed for wearing the wrong colors all over the nation. They even made quite a lot of movies showing this and focusing on the gang members as the heroes.

Colors (1988) - Drive-By Scene (1/10) | Movieclips - 1988

The thing is these movies were inspired by a movement, and a growing attitude and growing culture.

It did tend to cluster in certain places, and it also happened all over the nation but most people like one of my daughters that dressed this way, tried to act this way a bit, etc were more wanna be.

To me it looked like elevating people that are thugs and criminals to positions of admiration.

Mental Simulation Challenge

Now consider this cultural movement growing and expanding. Over time what do you think should logically happen to their interactions with law enforcement? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.

Over time what do you think should logically happen among the people in such cultural areas? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.

In fact this is what we see. Not only are the black deaths by law enforcement higher, the number of blacks killing blacks are also higher. In fact, black people are in far more danger from other black people statistically than they are police.

This cultural/neighborhood hypothesis actually explains both of those.

Over time what do you think should logically happen to non-black people that live in such cultural areas? I think the hostilities would naturally increase.

I am suspecting the number of white people killed by police is actually higher in these regions as well. I am suspecting non-black deaths in the area are likely higher than in other areas.

Basically I believe that culture fits more of the evidence than race does. If this is the case then Black Lives Matter is actually pointing at the wrong cause. If they believe that people should be able to act like a thug and cops should ignore their activities and IF this hypothesis has any merit then the true name of the movement should be Thug Lives Matter. It doesn't have anything to do with race if the hypothesis is correct. The only racial correlation is that the culture began in black communities, but it is not only black people that act this way.

That doesn't justify the twitchy generalizations that cops make, when they target people that are none of these things. Yet, I consider that a symptom of the results of the growth of the type of traits this culture seems to admire.

This type of mentality seems like oil being thrown against fire when it comes to law enforcement. It revels in the encounters, it puts them on pedestals. It elevates the thug to hero status.

Isn't it only natural that if perceiving thugs as the heroes that thug like activities would increase?

In such environments I'd expect Law Enforcement fatalities to be higher. Though I'd also expect all other types of fatalities to likewise be higher.

I have zero doubt there are some racist cops. I've met some myself. I've also met a lot that are not. I also have no doubt that green cops are likely pretty paranoid and twitchy when they have to enter dangerous neighborhoods.

There is one good thing about this hypothesis if it is true. You can't change your race. You can change your culture. If cultural practices increase danger then it is your choice as to whether you wish to continue those practices or not. There is also a nice thing about this. You have a choice. If you choose to continue the practices then you also must accept the consequences. That is of course only the case if this hypothesis proves to have any merit.

Consider it food for thought. Thinking outside of the box, and not jumping to a haste generalization.