In the last 30 years, the GOP has only won the popular vote in one presidential election, with 2004 and lost it every other time.
This might make some sense if looking at 2020.
The states which voted for Biden by over 60% of the vote.
- Washington DC-92%
- Vermont-66%
- Massachusetts-65.6%
- Maryland-65.4%
- Hawaii-63.7%
- California-63.5%
- New York-60.9%
Those are all the 60%+ wins and for Joe Biden brought in, 21.4 million votes. 25% of his 2020 total.
Now, the states Trump won over 60% of the vote in for 2020.
- Wyoming-70%
- West Virginia-68%
- Oklahoma-65%
- North Dakota-65%
- Idaho-63.8%
- Kentucky-62%
- Alaska-62%
- Arkansas-62%.
- South Dakota-61.7%
- Tennessee-60.5%
Combined, those states brought Trump 7.9 million votes. Less than half of Biden’s 60%+ states. Also, it’s 10.6% of Trump’s 2020 total.
Where this gets important is knowing for all 17 of these states, they had both campaigns spend less money there over what what was spent in Nevada, with both campaigns hitting 28 million combined.
Nevada, with 1.3 million voters in 2020, got more over 17 states, which combined for total voters made up about 40% of the people who voted in 2020.
But here’s where it gets important.
Joe Biden won with 51%/81 million votes.
Donald Trump lost with 47%/74 million votes.
The gap is 7 million people.
The thing to look at.
Massachusetts & Maryland both voted Republican for governor in 2018.
Kentucky voted Democrat in 2019 for governor and Democrat for senate in 2018.
Turnout in all four of these states only going up about 10-20% in 2020.
All four states have a massive amount of voters willing to vote Republican and Democrat, but they get almost no campaign money.
Reason is they are a lost cause and seen as a waste of a million dollars.
Trump could go spend 2 million in Massachusetts and get 40% of the vote instead of 32%.
Biden could go spend a million in West Virginia and get 40% over 30% also.
They don’t spend money in those places and it is what makes the GOP lose, because their big losers are bigger states over the DNC.
2020 was a little different, because Joe Biden did win by a lot.
But in 2016 & 2000, if Trump & W paid a little more cash in states like California or New York, they’d have both won the popular vote nationally.
So, what to do about this?
I don’t like the electoral college.
I think any system where campaigns spend more time/money in New Hampshire over New York, California, Tennessee & Kentucky combined is a problem.
A straight popular vote probably never happens, but compromise is getting rid of the winner take all model on electoral votes.
I know Republicans who live in New York that never bother to vote and Democrats in places like South Carolina who don’t also.
A really simple change to just give electoral votes proportioned to how the state voted would really fix a lot. It’s also something states like Nebraska & Maine already do and despite both voting clearly red/blue every election, they get campaigning done there.
It’d be a really simple change and fix the issue of campaigns not going to all 50 states.