Current Events: Nepal Coup & Bitcoin TA

You can just... do that?

I'm too old for this shit.
-- probably said it (73 years young)

The unrest is the worst in decades in the poor Himalayan country, which is wedged between India and China and has struggled with political and economic instability since protests led to the abolition of its monarchy in 2008.

Classic case of don't take away the distractions.

Let this be a lesson to all leaders that you don't take away the circus from the rabble.

Dubbed the 2025 Nepalese Gen Z protests, shit has really hit the fan in this small but relatively famous country. In fact it immediately reminds me of a video game replay I did several months back by the name of Far Cry 4.

Far Cry 4 is set in Kyrat, a fictional country in the Himalayas that blends elements from real-world regions like Nepal and Tibet.

The region is somewhat famous for their religious tenets and ongoing geo-political conflict. Hopefully they figure it out but we all know that the new boss is usually the same as the old boss given enough time to settle in.

"We demand a transparent and stable government that works in the interest of the people and not for the benefit of corrupt individuals or political elites," they added.

Wish in one hand my friend!

Isn't this how all governments are supposed to work, but none of them do?
Honestly those are simply the incentives of representative republics.

Hm well that's depressing!

Let's do some Bitcoin TA and forget about it!

Thus far September is doing well.

We've been up ever since the blood-moon on the 7th. This honestly could be a good time for day-traders to open up as the price is very close to the MA(50) and the trendline which we much assume are key resistance points at the moment. However, I closed my tiny short a couple days ago and ended up losing $60 (which is fine), and I'd be down a lot more if it was still open.

Upside vs Downside.

Even though it's September and we'd usually have a red month (sub $108k) it's still incredibly risky to be gambling on the market right now, which is why my recent bets have been so tiny. If we look at the leverage heatmap there are almost no longs to be liquidated around $100k-$103k range. If we happen to get that low I can definitely justify a large long position but shorting it down to that level is much more dubious. It will be Q4 2025 in a month after all.

BTC.DOMINANCE

Dominance of BTC still hangs at 58% same as last week. This is a key level that seems to be holding it's ground for now before it hopefully collapses in Q4 and we get the raging alt-market we've all been waiting for. So far everything seems to be in order so we just have to wait and see.

Trading in between averages

You'll notice that we've been trading in between the moving averages for a significant amount of time at this point. By my count that's 24 daily candles between MA(50) and MA(200). Surprisingly this is usually quite rare, as uptrends will send the price higher than the averages, while downtrends send it lower.

In the rare cases that we stabilize in between the averages and push them flatter we tend to see that this creates some good foreshadowing. Once an area has been deemed safe and stable by the market it tends to rocket upward and continue the uptrend. We can also see that the MA(200) and MA(100) are parallel and slightly upward. This further points to our stability and assurance that a dip down to the dark green line at MA(200) would likely be max-pain at this point before moving higher. Any long with a liquidation lower than $95k will probably succeed if held until the end of the year. Right now that looks like an x4, but a dip to $100k might call for an x20 for those feeling bold enough.

Again, we should not be expecting much in September. Remember that Sell-In-May-And-Go-Away also means September is the buying back in month. This is a cyclical global phenomenon in terms of financial markets that's been a thing for a long time. I would actually prefer to continue crabbing between the moving averages to create that stable base that will allow Q4 to explode upward. Certainly I won't complain if we start the run a little early, but don't count on it.