Hi guys, I want to discuss a thing where you can learn alot from about market sentiment and the importance thereof.
12 october 2017. The day where bitcoin started to run from $5000 towards the $6000 level. Dahm, what an unnecessary move was that. I still don’t get that one because it went way too fast. There was happening a very weird thing on Bittrex, where altcoins massively dropped right after each other and where other exchanges were following of course. There are a few theories about it what was happening there, but that’s not what I am going to discuss in this article.
The thing is, that altcoin sell off left a strong market thought where the belief was “sell all your altcoins for bitcoin to get FREE bitcoin gold on 25 october.” This was so massive that bitcoin did a first run and after that an second run and started even a third run. Let me tell you, the first time the most people didn’t have any idea what the fck happened. But then, this thought arose which sounded very logical. Sell your altcoins for bitcoin to get free bitcoin gold. And BAM, there you had the second massive run from Bitcoin because people saw that as a really smart move. You can see how emotional this market reacts on this.
I wasn’t very happy with that massive run. Because you could see in my other post I expected a crazy crypto october where I had planned a short term strategy and I was quite convinced I could make some great gains this month. But that run messed up everything for the altcoins. Especially that Ripple one.
Let’s give that one a look and do a quick recap on it why I’m thinking that bitcoin run was a shame. Start looking at the great set up for Ripple, which took week.
The accumulation zone was very very nice according to the Swell event. 2 weeks before Ripple begun to move upwards for the first time. We see the same set up like earlier this year around may. But then the bitcoin $%@$ was coming. You see that arrow? With that big red candle. Dahm son. The first time bitcoin began to run ripple stayed very strong. But unfortunately, with the second bitcoin run ripple became also a victim. Such a shame.
I really really believe that if this didn’t happen, there was a possibility we could maybe saw a 1$ ripple (or very close tot hat), because bitcoin was high and we needed only an x3 increase in btc value on Ripple, which was not hard to do if we look at the previous all-time high which was x5 from that point.
And you remember that first day of swell? They had really great news because they announced that Ripple & the Gates Foundation teamed up to level the economic playing field for the poor. Look at that purple circle I drew.
Dahm son, hype could be real on that news because we had 2 days more to go and we would definitely speculate about more news and we could see a big rise again.
But instead, whales were dumping their bags on this news because the whole set up was already messed up before the Swell event even started because of that Bitcoin rise.
So again, this set up took weeks and just in 2 days everything was fucked up.
Anyway, that is my view on what happened.
Recap "Go with the flow in crypto october 2018" article
According to my other altcoins strategy I didn’t make a big loss. As described I started with Adex which gave me some 30% profits and I went all-in on that so I was out of Bitshares on time (which was a bit of luck because Bitshares had some very bad news after that because they became unlisted from bittrex). Unfortunately, AdEx didn’t had enough fuel to do some crazy shit.
I was watching this one for days because I went all-in on Friday, when the buy signals occurred. But then it was weekend and there didn’t come new volume to it, so it kept moving sideways. I did hold until the moment Ripple gave me the first buy signals for his massive expected run so I went all-in on that with my short term portfolio. (not long after that AdEx breaked the trend lines and moved downwards). That paid very well out – until again that bitcoin shit occured which I described above.
After all, my short term strategy for october didn’t pay out on what I was hoping for. I made some small gains but not much unfortunately. Ripple ended with a sisser, my stop loss went off and that was the end of my short term portfolio strategy. At this moment it’s all-in dollars and I will write another article where I explain why I think it’s important to stay at the sidelines at this moment.
What we can learn from this
Market sentiment is extremely important! At the end it makes everything unpredictable and could make things or break things.