“You can only buy by mistake, but you can't sell by mistake”
Chinese proverb
It is believed that every year the friendship and partnership between Russia and China continue to "grow stronger". There is no doubt that China is a huge market and in general Russia does not need conflicts with an over-populated state that is just waiting for the opportunity to use the largest army in the world. But what is the relationship really like and is the "friendship" with China worth the price that Russia pays?
China has never been a good neighbor to Russia. Even at the time when both countries were building socialism and should have been interested in uniting against the entire capitalist world- China in its egocentrism and greed was unable to stop and tried to "grab" territories from us and its neighbors (Vietnam, India and Korea). The most disgusting thing is that having failed militarily, China has no problem getting everything through diplomacy. Over the past 25 years, Russia has absolutely voluntarily given as much land to China as it could not get in 150 years. The political prostitute Gorbachev parted with our achievements "for kinds words", even without a gun. In 1991, he gave the Damansky Island, which our border guards died for. But he only gave up one island. On the other hand, Russian patriot Putin signed a number of agreements between 1999 and 2004, under which China received free Islands with a total area of 337km2 (a piece of land in the area of Bolshoy Island and two pieces in the area of Tarabarov and Bolshoy Ussuriysky Islands near the confluence of the Amur and Ussuri rivers), and Chinese farmers were allowed to engage in economic activities on the other Islands of the Amur region. "It seems that" we were talking about joint economic use of resources with Russian farmers, but our border guards "for some reason" allow only the Chinese to enter the territory, and Russian farmers are not allowed to go to the Islands, no matter how many requests they send to Mr. President. As a result, China received the entire island range and temporarily closed its territorial claims.
Meanwhile, China has not lost interest in the territory of the Amur region, the Republic of Tuva and Primorye. Propaganda works and most Chinese people firmly believe that "Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk are native Chinese territories that were treacherously taken by the Russians. But they will return them to us". On Chinese school maps, Primorye is called Heihanshe, translated as "Northern province". The facts are very telling.
China has always been used to getting what it wants, but military conflicts with Vietnam, India and the Soviet Union have shown that the path of annexation is not so optimal, even if the army is 10 times larger than the opponent's. After all, the captured territories must be rebuilt and then held. And then you have to constantly prove your right to them in the UN. What for? In modern Chinese military science, the economic development of a foreign territory is considered a key moment for its future inclusion in China.** You are giving an economic expansion!
Why be at war if you can take several territories the size of Hong Kong "for rent for 49 years" at a price several times less than their real value, and then informally agree "to continue the banquet". This topic is as off-limits as possible and it is written by the media and individual bloggers who do not have a serious reputation .
The demographic presence of the Chinese in Russia is also growing. In 2002, there were less than 35,000 Chinese in Russia. Today, every tenth migrant is a Chinese citizen. Over 18 years, about 1 million people entered the country, not counting illegal migration. Chinese business is represented in more than 600 areas – but mostly it is trade, procurement and processing of raw materials, and large business often comes to us through the jurisdiction of third countries.
China "rakes" the reserves of Siberia and the Far Eastern Federal District wholesale and retail- gold, timber, furs, rare metals and medicinal plants at the price of "lentil soup". For example, the annual wood felling is 20-35 million cubic meters of forest. About a quarter of the total felling. In fact, it is more, but it is difficult to make an objective assessment, since 60-80% of resources are extracted illegally due to the connivance of government officials "bought wholesale".
But the worst thing is not even that China "cleans everything out for next to nothing", but that after it, there will be a desert in the truest sense of the word.
If China moves away from the agricultural land, which is now more than 200,000 hectares, the chemicals will destroy the land and make it unsuitable for subsequent cultivation. If China restores its forests back home, it does not do so in our country, because our legislation does not require it. And the predatory attitude towards flora and fauna is quite understandable – small firms are engaged in this, and they simply destroy everything they find at the root.
So it is still unknown, which is worse- war with China or a similar partnership!
Chinese entrepreneurs plan to build a plant on lake Baikal to produce the most ecologically pure water in the world for almost nothing. Apparently, this will be an experiment – how many years it will be possible to completely scoop out the water of the largest lake in the world.
At the same time, all infrastructure costs are borne by Russia, and China gets the maximum benefit from this partnership. However, one of the reasons why Chinese business is holding back investments in infrastructure is Russian sloppiness, corruption, lack of guarantees for business and constantly changing laws. Medium and large businesses simply do not want to take risks and prefer the hated but absolutely predictable Japan.
It is obvious that as long as the interests of government officials, rather than business and the population, dominate in the territories, China will smile mysteriously and calmly wait for the time to act - they teach this from childhood there.
In the meantime, China's business is fighting alone and making small steps that cut off territories from Russia. The railway route to Europe will not go through Russia, it will be cut off from the "Silk Road". "Nothing personal - you are to blame, with the low throughput of your Russian Railways". The food market of the Far Eastern Federal District is almost completely dependent on China when it comes to vegetable, fruits, and cereals. Yes, it is now China, not Russia, that controls the food market on which the health of the population depends. For example, because of the coronavirus outbreak, the supply was reduced by almost 2 times, and prices increased accordingly.
China's fight for the Far East and its cut-off from Russia has been waged by Chinese migrants for two decades. The Russian population in the Far East is less than 6 million people and every year it is getting smaller. About 100 million Chinese live near the border, and illegal migration is between 0.5 and 1 million people annually. The Chinese Diaspora does not assimilate – it completely preserves the language, customs, and creates its own districts. Where there are several Chinese people, a Chinatown will eventually appear. After all, if you are expanding - it is better to hire a Chinese, if necessary- "order" from abroad. Russian business cannot understand Chinese modesty. In China, they believe that 1% of profits is already a success. Our entrepreneurs cannot compete with Chinese ones. They are used to stiff competition and to the fact that they start a business in a new place, only after getting acquainted with others and enlisting their support, and Russian workers who are massively prone to drinking alcohol are clearly less profitable than the Chinese, for whom any superior is a god, and can relax only after fulfilling all obligations.
If by 2040 the ethnic Chinese will be 2 or more times larger than the rest of the population, the transition to a referendum on the ownership of the territory will be a matter of simple technique. And there are "polite people" in China.
The fact that the corruption and incompetence of local officials is used by China by 1000% is understandable. But the adoption of a number of decisions in favor of China at the Federal level can not be explained in any way, even by the complete idiocy of those who did it.
For example, why is the tariff for the sale of electricity to China set lower than the Russian one?
Or why is the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline implemented taking into account the interests of China and not Russia? A third of Russia's territory is not supplied with gas. China initiates the creation of the pipeline – it's just a win-win: to get money and to solve its problems at the partner’s expense. But the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline runs very strangely: bypassing the Republic of Buryatia- excluded from the gas supply system and the Zabaykalsky Krai, then through the territories of the Amur region with the minimum population, then to China. For some reason, Greenpeace and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), and not the government, were rattled that the construction of the gas pipeline would pass through the territory of the Ukok Rest Zone’s park in Altai, but the statesmen ignored this secondary point, as long as the friendship with China remained strong.
In addition, Russia gives a "generous gift" to China – instead of methane, it sends "wet gas" immediately before clearing valuable compounds. China receives ethane, butane, propane and helium absolutely free of charge.
Another point that characterizes the quality of management decisions in the development of such large-scale projects. Gazprom ignored the basic rules for developing gas fields where there are significant oil reserves. If you don't develop oil first, the pressure will drop and it will be impossible to get it from there. This is exactly what was done at the Chayandinskoye field.
As a result, 1.1 trillion was invested in the main gas pipeline. However, China did not give a single ruble, regardless of what was mentioned in the joint memorandum. Russia was expected to supply 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually. In this case, the project would have paid off by 2048. In reality, it is delivered almost 10 times less, because the corresponding fields have not been developed. It takes 10 to 15 years to reach the design capacity. It is hard to believe that China, with its gas needs, will sit and wait for Russia to fulfill its obligations. It may very well be that by then it will have accepted an alternative offer from smarter neighbors. China is the only buyer, so it will dictate the terms and buy for next to nothing. The project has turned from a guaranteed annual income into an unnecessarily risky venture investment. Is it not too bold to risk that kind of money?!
A question arises: why the "Power of Siberia" was implemented this way – with maximum damage to nature, a disruption to the remaining traditional people, and at the same time without control over economic returns, with minimal effect on Russia and its population?
After all, the concomitant "distribution" could be organized without compromising the business and the country. I immediately remember comrade Stalin and his paranoia about "pests" and "enemies of the people". It begins to seem that he had good reasons for considering a number of Soviet officials as agents of foreign influence.
By the way, it should be noted that the project was supervised by Mr. Medvedev, to whom the sphere of oil and gas is not "like" a stranger. In 2007, as Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Board of Directors of Gazprom, he committed himself to supplying gas to the whole of Russia within a ten-year period. As you know, his failure to keep promise does not affect this gentleman's career in any way. But it is much more interesting that after about 10 years, he has already forgotten about this promise (after all, it's been a long time, isn't it?). And, as Prime Minister, he said: "it is a shame when a country that produces the most gas in the world and, nevertheless, has such a low level of gas available to the population!".
It's a shame, of course, and by the way, how does Mr. Medvedev- now responsible for Russia's national security- himself feel?
Our country needs a strong Siberia and Far East, not feeding China at Russia’s expense. So this is not a friendship, China is just waiting for the time to "take its rightful place". The mutual smiles of the President and the Secretary of State and the mutual courtship with ice cream cover distribution and rollback of the remaining raw materials in favor of an unfriendly neighbor. All that we see are not business schemes. This is an ugly show-off, complete connivance and incompetence of those who are responsible for the development of these regions, starting with the President and Deputy Prime Minister.
There is no need to explain the obvious – government officials do not care what happens to Russian territories and where the border will pass. The main thing is that in 10-20 years, the consequences will disentangle others, and now their own wealth is growing right in front of an astonished public.
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