As the war entered into a new phase the future of Syria remains uncertain, ISIS has been defeated thanks mainly to the Syrian army and its allies (Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Shia militias), there are only few pockets where the infamous terrorist group is present and the number of its members shrunk drastically in the last year; despite victory against ISIS has been de facto achieved the US announced its intention to continue the occupation of N-E Syria in the territory controlled by YPG/SDF, this is of course illegal according to international law, not talking about the lawlessness of the bases US "advisers" have set up without the authorization of Damascus, how to deal with this? Is there a way to expell the Americans without causing a major conflict?
Turkey's role in the Syrian conflict has been destructive, the massive support they granted to terrorist groups (particularly Al-Qaeda and affliates) is unacceptable but sometimes it's necessary to put principles aside and enter into the realm of pragmatism and realpolitik, Erdogan signaled a readiness to a geopolitical shift after the failed coup against him but particularly due to the decision of the US (which as today it's still an ally of Turkey) to continue to supply weapons to the YPG/PKK considered by Ankara as a a terrorist group. The Astana process is a consequence of the Turkish divergence from the US, it led to the creation of safe zones which reduced the scale of the conflict on one side and this is positive but on the other side gave a safe haven to Al-Qaeda in Idlib, it was a contradictory decision, what happened to our pilot Roman Filipov shows that terrorists can't be included into any kind of agreement, but it gave the opportunity to focus entirely on the defeat of Daesh in Deir Ezzor; returning to Turkey's role, the country is the only player that can kick out the Americans from Syria taking into account that they will never risk a conflict that would cause the breakup of NATO, this is only an assumption but it's necessary to test it on the ground so I'm looking forward to the beginning of the military operation in Manbij.
Some of you might ask: "What's the difference between an American and a Turkish occupation of a part of Syria?"
First while Turkey is a regional player with big ambitions but no capabilities to project itself far from its borders the US empire is keen on trying to reach global hegemony, a full-spectrum dominance; by denouncing Russia and China as "revisionist countries" the Pentagon admits that according to its plan there is no alternative to a unipolar world and this is a greater risk for Russia than the one posed by a resurgent Turkey because it's clear that Washington prefers to launch WWIII than finding a compromise. Second it's far from certain that Turkey will permanently occupy the territories it seized in Syria because after losing the US due to the attack on Manbij it will lose Russia too finding itself isolated in the international arena and the Syrian army and Iran-backed militias may find an agreement with Kurds to help them recover the territory or embark themselves directly into a war against Erdogan's proxies where Ankara will be clearly in a weaker position.
Russia has to pursue this risky strategy due to the reckless policies of the US, there is no alternative.
