Predictions for all La Liga games of Matchday 10 based on Molali's calculations.
This is the second week now for my prediction model. I couldn't have dreamed a better start, all information about last week you can find here. I hope to make some good profit this week too.
Last week I placed only 3-way bets, for this weekend I start with some result bets too. I don't know yet how to decide which result bets I should place, I would appreciate any advice. For this week I decided to look at any result prediction with a probability over 20%, then compare the odds of the bookies. Like I do for the 3-way bets, if the implicit probabilities are lower than the probabilities of Molali, that means a value is there. The stakes for these bets is 1 Unit.
3-way bets stay the same as last week: For each game I compared the results with the odds from my 3 bookies (bet365, bwin and pinnacle) to find the "odds with value". If the implicit probabilities are lower than the probabilities of Molali, that means a value is there. These are the bets I place. I play every bet with 2 Units.
Valladolid - Espanyol
Odds with value: X = 3.29 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 8.11 @ Pinnacle
Girona - Rayo Vallecano
Odds with value: X = 3.77 @ Pinnacle; 2 = 4.57 @ Pinnacle
Athletic Bilbao - Valencia
Odds with value: X = 3.30 @ bet365; 2 = 3.00 @ Bwin
Levante - Leganes
No value bets for this game
Celta - Eibar
No value bets for this game
Atletico Madrid - Real Sociedad
Odds with value: X = 4.1 @ Pinnacle; 2 = 7.64 @ Pinnacle; 1 - 0 = 5.75 @ Bwin
Getafe - Betis Sevilla
Odds with value: X = 3.13 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 7.41 @ Pinnacle
Barcelona - Real Madrid
No value bets for this game
Alaves - Villareal
Odds with value: X = 3.34 @ Pinnacle; 0 - 0 = 8.4 @ Pinnacle
Sevilla - Huesca
No value bets for this game
Summary
This week I found 9 value bets concerning the 3-way bets and 4 on the field of the result bets. That means I placed 13 bets with a total stake of 22 Units. Like last week lots of bets on a draw or the away team, this seems already like a pattern, but ouf course it's too early to know for sure.
