- There is an automatism: the more SDB in circulation - the more pressure for sinking prices
- there is less volume of SBD in the market in comparison to Steem and other coins (38 Mio. USD)
- a lot of crypto-"investors" don't really understand what they buy
- some of them buy SBD because they think it is a cheap way (market cap) to buy "shares" in steem
- because of the low volume rule 3 and 4 are stronger than 1 - temporarily
In the beginning of the year we have the 1:1 ratio of SBD and USD (green line). With the rising interest in cryptocurrencies the price rises too. When somebody burns bigger sums of SBD (purple) (promote or such things?) the price rises. In december the demand of new "investors" rises much faster than steem system can produce SBD, so the price rises. In reaction of rising prices more SBD is produced.
More authors don't power up with 100 % but get SBD as reward. They get more SBD-reward because 37.5 % of the reward is directly paid in SDB without any exchange rate like the steem part of the reward which is sinking with higher exchange rates. Authors don't pay a lot of SBD for promoting (burned) when one single SBD is worth 8 USD or more. So the production of SBD is high. There are more and more SBD in circulation and everybody hopes the price will again reach the high levels of 8 or 13 USD.
But I think the price will fall in the next weeks because the change in circulation is slower because there are a lot hoping authors who acts like the price will rise in future so they produce SBD. Only a near crypto-boom like in december will make SBD-prices rise as we have seen it in december but then steem rises too. So, over all it is better to buy steem then hodl SBD.
What do you think? Please, reply if you have a thought, a question or an other opinion. All comments not made by bots will be upvoted due to better visibility.
